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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: A Horse With No Name who wrote (2833)	11/3/2003 12:17:31 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 108549

my takeaways from Fox's FSU article A trap is about to close on foreign investors. Inflationary money and credit supply growth and the government requirement to attract investors to buy debt issues related to growing deficits will inevitably cause interest rates to rise. A scenario of rising interest rates, which hurts bond market values, will encourage bond investors to sell in advance, which will in turn help to drive interest rates higher. A falling dollar, related to money supply growth, will encourage foreign bond investors to sell in advance before they incur currency exchange-related losses on their dollar-denominated holdings. Selling US bonds and transferring into other currencies will help drive the dollar even lower, feeding a vicious circle. finally somebody recognizes what I have described for a full 12 months A VICIOUS CIRCLE WILL ENGULF THE USDOLLAR Asians have clearly begun to perceive the closing door the beneficiaries of extended credit capital (Americans) will be the last to recognize the suppliers will be the first to recognize, and withdraw slowly they will have their own denial that they can recover and redeem most of their money held in US debt securities unfortunately for them, much will be sacrificed down the road unsure how much but it would take a lunatic to claim full redemption and The dollar index has already lost about 24% of its value since Jan 2002. John Templeton’s continued dollar bearishness implies that the unhedged gold stock index (HUI), which is already up over 400% from its low in late 2000, could run further. Precious metals have a strong historical inverse correlation with the strength of the dollar. the USDollar decline started on October 1st weekend the large move by the Euro was much like a preliminary band coming on stage before the main event charlatan actors prance around and sing loudly but the markets paid little attention THE MAIN EVENT IS THE RISE OF ASIAN CURRENCIES IT HAS FINALLY BEGUN, AND WILL WREEK HAVOC first with the JYen, the only major currency traded with heavy volume on the FOREX second with the politically charge repeg of the Yuan and following like little army soldiers, the Korean Won, the HongKong Dollar, the Taiwan Dollar, the Thai Bhat, the Singapore, the Malaysian and all hell breaks loose on imported inflation to the USA from Asian exporters who make everything under the American sun the primary upcoming motive will be for Asian regional alliance, coordinated policy, and balance they must adapt first to a higher JYen currency then the entire continent will allow a currency appreciation versus the USDollar, regardless of the consequences some pain in the short run will be tolerated as medicine against a systemic breakdown altogether our nation is fuched, and our leaders are fuched NO WAY OUT the given outcome is for a monetary crisis the onliest unanswered question is WHEN / jim