Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (1753)	11/1/2003 4:44:03 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

ContraryInvestor November 2003 contraryinvestor.com

To: russwinter who wrote (1753)	11/1/2003 4:45:59 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

IMO very much short term depends on X-mas sales and in particular how much stuff retailers are going to stock up.

To: russwinter who wrote (1753)	11/1/2003 7:15:12 PM
From: Silver Super Bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, Very interesting answer. So in effect then, interest rates are being smothered. I guess my observation is, then, all is fine under that scenario as long as no one gets spooked into thinking it is time to sell their bonds. I have been stunned by the rise in various commodity prices lately. I am beginning to wonder if they aren't signalling some strong incipient inflation. Typically this type of inflation would be accompanied by rising interest rates, but if these rates are being subverted it could explain why rates aren't rising along with commodity prices. DB

To: russwinter who wrote (1753)	11/2/2003 3:20:27 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Artifically suppressing interest rates is what this bubble is all about. Anybody who doubts this should look at 10-year bond yields today (4.3%) and compare them to the 10-year-yield the last time GDP growth, stock prices, gold, or the CRB were at current levels. But as we have seen with gold, market forces cannot be suppressed forever. And markets that have been held artificially up or down tend to move to equal extremes in the opposite direction when the pendulum turns. I would not rule out double digit T-bond yields a few years hence.