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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve168 who wrote (17978)	11/2/2003 4:47:51 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78673

Now is the tough question - What is the next FARO ;-) Yes. Inquiring minds want to know. :-) ------------ The really tough question I have is: even if the name of the next FARO (10 bagger+) were to be given to me, would I even be able to recognize it as another great investment? Discouragingly, I'd have to say most likely not. I can kinda, sorta excuse the SINA types. They were recommended here all right, but as under-cash plays. As regards SINA, it seemed to have gone quickly way beyond that as buyers bid the price to very high levels as a China play, an internet China play, a momentum play. Therefore, very hard for a value player to justify stepping in once the stock got into its run and above several times book. It became a matter of going well beyond balance sheets to having some faith in the viability (growth) of essentially a new business. To me, SINA and the other cash plays seemed more like getting in early and being able to stay in - holding tough for the ride. That's my opinion anyway. FARO though was recommended here several times at several prices as a value story. Jeffrey bash outlooked his goal for the stock several times. (e.g. 3 to 10 and later, 10 going to 18, etc.). Jeffrey also suggested that the story of FARO be studied (e.g. listen to conference call, get knowledgeable of the potential actual earnings based on published company info. or yahoo postings). I looked at FARO each time it was mentioned, and I just could not see the value attraction. Either at $3.50 or anywhere through $24. And I still don't get. So I have to shrug my shoulders and say I'm not likely to see the next 10-bagger that will be offered up here. And my guess is most others here will not see it either. It seems to me there's only been one other poster besides Jeffrey who's commented on FARO during its run up. So how many posters here did buy FARO after jeffrey bash's posts? Few if any, I would say. (Of course, I am just guessing , I have no knowledge of what posters or lurkers are actually doing.) Same with SINA and those types. Few if any here bought and saw a 5x or 10x gain. (Again, I base this on the few poster comments.) Other success stories could be mentioned by people who've suggested stocks here that have subsequently gone up to 5x or 10x. Most of these too, I suspect, likely didn't garner any comments (interest) here during their runs. I guess it's just a matter of how we all approach investing differently and have different goals and different risk profiles. Paul Senior, who apparently needs somebody to kick him in the butt to buy when those 10 baggers are offered. -g-

To: Steve168 who wrote (17978)	11/3/2003 12:07:14 AM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78673

Steve, would you believe - possibly FARO. It does not remotely belong on a Value Investing thread any more, and clearly has short term price risk. However, anyone who listened to the recent one hour conference call (on which yours truly participated) and did not come away with the view that FARO may become the Microsoft of its industry niche wasn't listening. They are now forecasting about $.70 as the EPS midpoint for 2004 (after a higher tax rate) up from about $.50 for this year. On Yahoo, I posted 10-bagger potential in March at $2.30; in May at $6+ I posted $100 over 5-10 years. This week I plan to put out a new long term outlook which will be higher. FARO is the best COMPANY I have run across since COO in the mid-90's. It has the key ingredients that I look for - durable competitive advantage, high gross margins, and management with unquestioned competence, experience and integrity (and hopefully no coverage or institutional ownership to speak of). Of course, there are lots of great companies. but most of them are well known, widely held and without exceptional potential. By the way, don't feel too bad. I recommended FARO for entrance into the Value Investor's Club (http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/) at $7.61. I was accepted, after the stock had risen more, and it took some courage to recommend it to the general membership at around $10.20, with a very extensive writeup (now available, I believe, through Guest Access). The idea got a horrible 2.5 of 10 rating, but has had the best performance of anything since.