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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (54559)	11/2/2003 10:48:52 AM
From: Bridge Player	Respond to of 54805

<<I hold the view that Moore took some fundamental marketing knowledge and packaged it up in clever lingo and situations specific to technology companies.>> IMO this comment is right on target.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (54559)	11/2/2003 11:14:02 AM
From: DaYooper	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

John I searched up and down your post for the one quote that best summed up your thesis and came up with this one: it seems to me that the fundamental determinant of a successful investment isn't the nature of the company, but the degree to which I am able to estimate and secure a "fair price" and then extract a later profit. Which is why it figures so prominently in my investment thinking. Reading this I was reminded of Louis Rukeyer's famous quote "buy low, sell high" or something to that effect. So you have have Lou on your side in this discussion. <g> I believe this is an excellent investment philosophy and strategy if you want to be "active" in the market. But personally I don't think I'd be any good at it. Maybe some day I'll try. But not right now -- too much other stuff to do like finishing the sauna I started last winter. The bubble years may have created the impression that stock prices are often out of whack relative to intrinsic value. You might believe we are still in the "bubble years". Most of us sure hope we are not. Anyhow, outside of a bubble, a stock price will move up and down within a range of the company's long term perceived value. Your strategy is to work that range. And you may very well have much greater success than me with my ltb&h. But here is where I think we disagree. I believe that Cisco, Intel, and QUALCOMM will substantially outperform the stock market as a whole over the next ten years. I own these stocks today and will still own them in ten years. I will not need to think about technical analysis, valuations, or sharp price movements. I'm not sure if today's prices on these companys' stocks are high or low in that earlier mentioned range. But I don't need to figure that out because over the long run their competitive advantages will allow them to outpace the market, imho. Of course I will be keeping my eyes open and my ear to the ground in case something should come along to disrupt their competitive advantage. As a side note, if I knew of a different investment vehicle such as bonds, art, gems, or precious metals that I believed would provide a greater ROI over the next ten years I would move my investments there. But gorillas seem like the safest long term investments to me.