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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio candidates - Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (251)	11/2/2003 12:36:38 PM
From: straight life	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2955

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Tim always been enthusiastic about qcom... and a little over the top at times? I can remember him projecting a 50% compound growth rate back in '99. uf I don't know; I think everyone was bullish in '99... and everyone is pretty cautious now, analysts especially. Here's his latest conclusion... do you see a raging bull? "We are currently modeling flattish total sales year over year in FY04 at around $3.8 billion. Our prior estimate was down 2% at $3.75 billion. We are currently modeling for chipset sales to be down around 5% in FY 2004 (reflecting the very large shipments in the December and March quarters of FY03 of 29 and 28 million chips respectively). We are modeling for chipset margins to move from 33% in FY2003 to around 28% in FY04. We look for licensing and royalty revenues to be up around 3% to $1.04 billion with the QWI division seeing solid growth of around 17% to around $565 million as areas such as OmniTRACS and BREW see improved traction. We are now increasing our fiscal 2004 estimates from $1.31 to $1.35 and our CY04 estimates move from $1.37 t $1.40. We continue to believe estimates may prove conservative with management potentially guiding for flat to only slightly lower EPS on the earnings call vs a level of around $1.43 in FY03. With WCDMA likely to ramp in 2005, we believe QCOM’s sales, earnings and addressable market should see significant expansion in 2005 and beyond. Our target for QUALCOMM edges to $49 from around 35x our CY04 estimate of $1.40."