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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mathemagician who wrote (54576)	11/2/2003 11:02:26 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

The point is, backtesting a discretionary strategy yields no meaningful results And yet that's what Moore claimed he had done, isn't it? As it was implemented here, LTBH, there are not yet enough results to determine whether the method is effective or not. What a-priori timeframe must we use to validate the results? Here we sit, four years from publication of the book. Through approximately equal measures of bull and bear plus some "recovery" turmoil. And the results in use by what has to be a collection of experts are... um... unimpressive. Even in comparison to the similarly unimpressive returns of the broad market. Not compared to what I have achieved, at least. We all get to mark our own standards of being impressed. Is it a useful strategy? I think it has its merits - but under limited circumstances. Not universally. We can't have it both ways: a strategy that is good over long terms but which should be set aside during bear markets? That is hardly the appropriate basis for a "LTBH" implementation. Sure, maybe the thread had a point in rejecting the idea of interrupting the GGame because of valuation concerns or as inappropriate during a bear market. Much like some folks have a point rejecting seatbelts when they drive. Doesn't mean I have to be sympathetic to the subsequent post-crash moaning in either case, does it? As far as Reversal days are a good example of this. It is true that most reversals happen at reversal days. However, it is not true that most reversal days lead to reversals. The implication in trading is that that reversal days generally make a better filter or confirmation criteria than primary entry strategy. Perhaps that analogy can be extended to the Gorilla Game? Intriguing. Forgive me but I'm not confident I understand what you just asked. I am not so well versed in trendline analysis as you are. Perhaps a short course would be in order? Others here could benefit, I think.