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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (40720)	11/3/2003 1:40:36 AM
From: FR1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, Thanks for your recent response on the CSCO thread. This thread seems to be your home so I will post here. A long time ago when we talked you mentioned that you liked boom as the best place to trade. Is that still the case? As far as China stocks go, do you buy shares on Shanghai B or just do ADRs? What are your favorites? Below is a list of China ADR type stocks listed recently in IBD. Most people I know like CBA the best because the auto industry is bound to go way up. The problem I have is not determining the best sectors but trying to figure out which stocks will get promoted or shot down by the government. It seems you can wake up any day and get a headline like this: "Huachen Makes Offer for Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Ltd. 2002 Dec 19 1:07 PM Huachen, a People's Republic of China wholly state-owned limited liability company established in China, announced that it has entered into the Principal Agreement with the Foundation pursuant to which it purchased from the Foundation a total of 1,446,121,500 Shares, representing approximately 39.446 per cent of the issued share capital of the Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Ltd." That sounds like the government decided to buy 39.4% of CBA. So it sounds like you have to deal with CBA if you want to do autos in China. Is that right? Is it the same story for CHU and CHL? ******************************************** Symbol Name Last P/E CBA BRILLIANCE 39.76 16.68 CHU CHINA UNICOM 9.16 21.47 CHL CHINA MOBILE 14.17 13.59 ASTT ASAT HLDGS LTD 2.67 N/A ACH ALUMINUM CHINA 51.15 15.60 ASIA ASIAINFO HLDGS 7.07 N/A CEO CNOOC LTD ADR 37.65 10.61 CEA CHINA EAST AIR 17.20 N/A SNP CHINA PETROLEUM 32.79 10.12 ZNH CHINA SOUTH AIR 19.26 N/A CYD CHINA YUCHAI 29.90 N/A CHINA CHINADOTCOM CP 9.19 N/A HNP HUANENG POW 61.70 N/A JCC JILIN CHEMICAL 18.15 N/A NTE NAM TAI ELECT 36.11 38.23 NTES NETEASE.COM INC 45.45 760.00 PTR PETROCHINA ADR 36.40 8.54 XING QIAO XING UNIV 8.90 N/A SINA SINA CP ORD SH 38.65 109.03 BYH SINOPEC BEIJING 10.96 15.95 SHI SINOPEC SHA PET 28.55 12.44 SOHU SOHU COM INC 34.31 85.10 YZC YANZHOU ADR 36.80

To: TobagoJack who wrote (40720)	11/3/2003 8:41:50 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

>>The last time I send you an aggregation of all my postings to you, you got upset. Remember?<< No, I don't. Please feel free to provide a link. Your allegation regarding an imputed emotional state is a cheap shot, Jay. I can only assume that it results from your unwillingness to get specific regarding the bear case. Now, based on defined cause-effect relationships, I know what I think the market(s) will do between now and the end of 2004, and am positioned accordingly. You are certain that I am wrong and I am willing to provide an opportunity for you to prove it. So.....make your prognosis (we can avoid using the word prediction, if you like) for any and all markets of your choice for 2004 and I will respond with my views. In 14 months we'll see who gets the bragging rights. And remember, this is all for entertainment purposes only.