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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (118384)	11/3/2003 11:30:07 AM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hello, Michael. There will be no partition, at least not voluntarily. Too many Shi'ia do not want to join with Iran, for one thing. For another, Kurdistan will not be tolerated on any terms, for the foreseeable future. It is a threat to too many states. The Sunni Iraqis will not cease to pursue a unified Iraq because we leave. Indeed, those who would fight against the Ba'athist now would fight with them then. Thus, the question is simple: either we achieve our goals, more or less, or the country descends into civil war. We will probably need to raze Fallujah and/or Tikrit before things are over. Regardless, the key is breaking the back of the resistance by impeding command and control, interdicting weapons, and disrupting money supplies. If we can severely reduce the level of attacks, then we must retain a defense presence, at a lower troop level, of course, aimed at reassuring all factions that the Ba'athists will not arise again, and that a unified and constitutional Iraq will survive long enough to have a fighting chance. If you believe, as I do, that the Sunnis have mostly had it, and want a normalized society, the goal is achievable. If you think that the Ba'athists are in a position to mobilize evermore opposition, then I am afraid the situation is doomed. But you offer interesting suggestions, even if they strike me as unviable.

To: michael97123 who wrote (118384)	11/4/2003 1:06:35 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi michael97123; Re: "I am hoping that we can gain control of the situation in the Sunni triangle but after seeing the dancing saddamite kids at the downing of the chinook and imagining the dancing fundamentalists, I am far less confident than I was when I stopped posting several months ago." It is defections (to reality) like this that will eventually force us to leave Iraq. We can remain only as long as a majority of our citizens live in dreamland. Re: "If there is a three way split, the big question becomes how to contain the new Baath controlled rump state after the US and GB pull out--imo that should fall to Turkey and Iran. I am a believer in an evolving iran, so ten years down the road things may not be as bad as we imagine under this scenario. Again this is a first stab at an alternate reality so be patient with the thinking process behind it." Getting back to realistic power diplomacy, you can forget about the Turks helping out. The "Governing Council" has already rejected the idea. If anyone is going to help us in Iraq it will have to be Arab, as anyone else will be treated the same way we are. And Iran has its connections to the fundamentalists. If they suppress the Baathists, it will only be to help the Islamic fundies who are the ally of Osama bin Laden. The situation in Iraq is ugly. What Bush did was to trade a situation where we could bomb the locals into a pretty good version of submission from 50,000 feet while remaining immune to their attacks, for a situation where they can bomb our soldiers with IEDs, mortars, and SAMs while remaining relatively immune to our counterattacks. What we need to do is to work back to our prewar situation, where the military advantage was with us rather than them. If that leaves Iraq ungovernable, or governed by people who hate us, then what the hell. The country whose citizens were responsible for destroying the WTC was Saudi Arabia, a country with which our relations are the best. Probably the worst thing that could happen to us, as far as the war on terror goes, is to convert Iraq into an "ally" like Saudi Arabia, where the government is nominally an ally, but the people hate us and are, in fact, our true enemy. -- Carl