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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: willcousa who wrote (12314)	11/3/2003 11:48:52 AM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95596

From Briefing.com: 10:21AM Nasdaq Composite hovering just below Oct high (COMPX) : -- Technical -- The index is outperforming today but is still below its Oct 15 high of 1966.87. Intraday supports are at 1956 (last wk's high) and the 1949/1948 area. Next resistances from the weekly charts on a move to a new high for the month are at 1971, 1973 and the 1976/1976 area. 10:17AM S&P 500 pushes to new 52-wk high : -- Technical -- Index popped above the 1053 barrier which capped the upside on Oct 15 and again last week during early dealings and extended the push after the data (session high 1059.83). Currently hovering slightly below but as long as support at 1056 and of course the breakout point at 1053 remain intact, the short term posture remains favorable. The next resistance barrier of interest on the upside from the weekly chart is at 1063 with the 38% retrace of the entire bear market slide at 1068. 9:13AM Micron initiated at JMP with a Mkt Outperform and $20 target (MU) 14.34: JMP Securities is initiating coverage of MU with a Market Outperform and $20 price target, based on a 19x target P/E multiple on peak earnings power of $1.05 in CY05 and a secular earnings growth rate of 20%. Firm believes that Micron is well positioned for a cyclical recovery in revenue and earnings growth over the next two years driven by strong demand for DRAM memory in consumer PCs and corporate PCs/servers aided by a corporate IT upgrade cycle. The firm believes the co's improved operating leverage, ramp of efficient capacity (200mm/300mm wafers) with 0.11-micron and 0.09-micron technology, and a new strategic relationship with Intel are key to the firm's above-consensus revenue and EPS forecasts. Firm says the stock is still attractively valued at approximately a 1.8x multiple on an enterprise value/CY04 revenue basis and a 1.8x multiple on a price/book value basis relative to the semiconductor SOX index trading at approximately 4.3x and 4.5x. 9:02AM Watch for potential weakness in ATYT and NVDA on IBM/Microsoft news : 9:01AM IBM inks semiconductor pact with Microsoft for Xbox (IBM) 89.48: Co and Microsoft ink a semiconductor technology agreement under which Microsoft has licensed leading-edge semiconductor processor technology from IBM for use in future Xbox products and services to be announced at a later date. The new Xbox technologies will be based on the latest in IBM's family of state-of-the-art processors. 8:45AM ThinkEquity comments on strong SIA data; also likes Semis ahead of AeA conference : ThinkEquity comments on strong Sept S.I.A. data. The firm notes S.I.A. numbers represented year over year growth up from 14% to up 17% as the robust September replaced the June month. ThinkEquity suggests the strength appears to have held up in October, but with Lunar New year much earlier than normal (in late January), would not be surprised to see early ordering. This may also be delaying some new product releases/refreshes as OEMs and especially service providers appear to be flushing out old product lines to avoid obsolete product in inventory. In addition, the S.I.A. data also suggested high-performance analog was strong, which reinforced the firm's belief that during the second half of this recovery co's with mixed-signal capabilities are likely to excel. The firm believes this will benefit the likes of TXN and STM in the large cap; AGRA , MRVL, and BRCM in the mid-cap; and MND or CTLM in the small cap sector. ThinkEquity would be selective buyers of semis during this week's AeA conference, not because 3Q S.I.A. unit numbers were strong (and thus, largely known post-earnings), but from expected bullish guidance out of Dell and Cisco. 8:21AM Keithley beats by $0.14, affirms DecQ (KEI) 16.13: Reports Q4 (Sep) earnings of $0.06 per share, ex-items, $0.14 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $(0.08); revenues rose 3.1%year/year to $29.3 mln vs the $27.8 mln consensus. Co is optimistic that conditions throughout the electronics industry will continue to slowly improve. For Q1 (Dec) co sees sales of $26-$29 mln vs R.R. consensus of $28.5 mln. At the low end of the sales range, the co would expect a pretax loss. At the high end, co expects pretax earnings as a percentage of sales in the low-single digits. 8:03AM Goldman Sachs downgrades ADI, starts AMIS with an Outperform : Goldman Sachs downgrades ADI to In-Line from Outperform and initiates coverage of AMIS with an Outperform; firm cites relative valuation for the downgrade, and says ADI may lack some of the cyclical potential of AMIS over the next couple qtrs. 7:57AM Tower Semicon beats by a penny (TSEM) 6.04: Reports Q3 (Sep) loss of $0.77 per share, $0.01 better than the Reuters Research consensus of ($0.78); revenues rose 31.7% year/year to $16.07 mln vs the $13.30 mln consensus. 7:56AM MCDTA downgraded at RBC 10.37: RBC Capital downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform and cuts their target to $10 from $14, as customer EMC appears to have slowed shipments of MCDTA directors in recent weeks in an attempt to drive price and strategic concessions; firm believes that EMC appears willing to risk damaging the MCDTA relationship to achieve price and strategy goals, and that MCDTA conceded pricing but only received order releases very late the last day of the qtr, which will likely impact results; firm expects MCDTA will evolve to a more direct business model with both hardware and software offerings, which could require additional operating investments. 9:24AM The Technical Take : The market ended last week on a mixed note with the volume readings on the lighter side. Despite the quiet finish to the week the overall performance was impressive as the averages recouped virtually all of their losses off the mid-month highs. Going one step further was the S&P 600 Small-Cap index which not only took out the previous high for the month (as did S&P 400 Mid-Cap), it established a new all time intrasession high. From a sector perspective we had solid leadership develop in financial/banking (BIX), housing (HGX), cyclical (CYC), telecom (XTC) and defense (DFI) which all pushed to fresh 52-wk highs. The weakest sectors over the previous five sessions included: oil (XOI), oil service (OSX) and drug (DRG). We highlight the sector action for areas of strength to focus on but also as an indication of the underlying strength/weakness of the market. And, despite a healthy dose of concern that the market may be due for a longer period of consolidation given the steady march higher over the last seven months (no technical signals generated yet), the key leadership groups have continued to perform well (semi, financial, cyclical). Healthy rotation (not deterioration) has been noted among the other sectors with corrections taking the form of sideways consolidations. Nasdaq Composite: Although we have highlighted the overall favorable market/sector action, this index is actually heading into today's session on a two day losing streak. However, the loss has totaled an inconsequential 4.3 points. A quick look at the index below shows how it merely consolidated near its 20 exp mov avg (hourly chart), one of the first lines of defense during pullbacks. For this morning, the strong SIA data is providing a lift to the tech dominated index with a series of session highs/congestion providing initial resistances at 1944, 1949 and 1951/1952. Thereafter all we have is last week's high of 1956 standing in the way of a retest of the Oct high at 1966.87. Short term support is at the 20 exp mov avg on the hourly chart which starts the day at 1930 with last week's low at 1928.