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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (1788)	11/3/2003 1:21:50 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Note that in all previous recessions, sales of homes and consumer durables fell sharply, creating considerable pent-up demand to fuel a rebound. Plus savings were accumulated. But none of that has happened this time. Record breaking fiscal and monetary stimulus kept home and auto sales very strong throughout the "recession". So the pent-up consumer demand for durables that has fueled previous recoveries simply is not there. Business investment did take a big hit and looks poised for a more sustainable rebound. But such investment is not nearly sufficient to trigger a sustained recovery on its own.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (1788)	11/3/2003 1:31:25 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

IMO there is no doubt that there is no genuine recovery. The thing is that there is nothing to recover from. Consumer spending hasn't missed a beat. Yes it was all financed by new debt. The questions are "can it get any better?" and "how much longer can it last?". The short term question is about coming X-mas selling season. Apparently retailers should be very optimistic and order lots of stuff (from China). Do people still have the money to buy all that stuff? Is there much money left from the last cash out check? The one who has the correct answers to the above questions can make a lot of money.