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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (40316)	11/4/2003 3:27:59 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 70981

The Worden Report (Monday, November 3, 2003) A Gap in the SP-500 It is rare that you will see any kind of a gap on a daily chart of the SP-500. Today we had an "exhaustion gap" to the upside. "Exhaustion gaps" are just what the name implies: a tired market clawing its way upward desperately. In itself it is NOT a forecast of Armageddon, but such gaps are almost always filled, even in volatile stocks that frequently gap both upward and downward. The odds are much more so in an average -- particularly an average as broad as the SP-500. The fact this upward gap occurred on lighter volume increases the odds the gap will be filled. We did have an exhaustion gap in the SP-500 on July 14th (Bastille Day). That marked the high for almost two months. It didn't ignite a flaming crash, but we didn't expect it to. I believe, as I have for a long time, that we are in a bull market. But the market would be in a much healthier condition and less subject to a sudden, nasty correction, if we were to undergo a short-to-intermediate-term rest. All three of the major average hit new recovery highs today. The Nasdaq was the only one that did so on increasing volume. And the Nasdaq didn't appear as overextended as the SP-500. Breadth was excellent across the board. We have a vulnerable market on our hands, but not a market that is giving clear-cut signs that it is about to undergo something serious in the way of a correction. But as has been the case since March, storm clouds could arise very rapidly. -DW

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (40316)	11/4/2003 3:25:23 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 70981

SmartMoney.com October Layoffs Surge Tuesday November 4, 12:40 pm ET By Stacey L. Bradford Can you say jobless recovery? Despite last week's news that the economy grew a robust 7.2% in the third quarter, an ever-growing number of workers are receiving pink slips. Last month corporate America announced plans to slash a stunning 171,874 jobs, a 125% increase over September's figure of 76,506. ADVERTISEMENT The October surge was the highest monthly total since October 2002, according to a report released Tuesday by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas. It also ended a streak of five consecutive months of sub-100,000 job cuts. The lowest figure during that stretch was back in June when just 59,715 jobs were lost. While the number of job losses was steeper than many had hoped for, the trend was in line with seasonal expectations, says Challenger. During the last few months of every year companies hand out an increasing number of pink slips in an effort to trim costs and meet budget and profit goals. Still, don't expect the job market to recover come January. "With factors like technology, outsourcing and consolidation working against job creation, any job-market rebound we see in the near future will be relatively small," predicts John Challenger, chief executive of the outplacement firm. Just how small? According to a Challenger poll, more than three-quarters, or 78%, of human-resources executives didn't expect to see any significant upturn in hiring until the second quarter of 2004. Eleven percent anticipates hiring will pick up in the third and fourth quarters, while another 11% don't anticipate any improvement in 2004. On Friday the government will release the October unemployment rate. It currently sits at 6.1%.

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (40316)	11/4/2003 3:30:50 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 70981

Tim, I think we have reached the bottom as far as companies artificially holding spending belwo maintanence levels. What we have not determined yet is the true sustainable run rate within idustry segments. There are still a lot of comapnies out there living off the money they raised during the heady IPO days of the 90's. Some like RBAK spent unwisely are now having to go into bankruptcy to clear their debts. As a company I can't imagine too many companies taking their seriously as a supplier though. They would be worried their investment down the road would be lost. The slow down has also allowed competitors to catch up. I we will continue see a lot of companies go under as market efficients try to mathc the demand with the capacity. As much as the worst is over there is still more pain to come in certain sectors.