The "New York Times" on the "Late Night" wars. I never liked "Leno." I think Letterman is "mailing it in." Here is Sullivan's take.
The NYT today tries to explain why Leno is now so dominant. It's relatively easy, I think: Leno is a conservative voice in an unsettled time. His hackneyed humor and old-as-the-hills jokes, and non-confrontational suck-ups with Hollywood-approved celebs are more comforting than Letterman's snarling irony. More to the point: IRONY IS DEAD. It died years ago - even before 9/11. Letterman, much as I admire him, is a relic. It's over, Dave. Over.
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November 3, 2003
Late at Night, That's NBC Crowing
By BILL CARTER
Ten years into the deeply personal competition for supremacy in late-night television, NBC has decided the time is finally right to send CBS and its star, David Letterman, a pointed and very public message:
"There is no more late-night war," said Jeff Zucker, president of NBC Entertainment, echoing a claim he first made in the summer that NBC's "Tonight" show had definitively vanquished CBS's "Late Show."
The current numbers appear to back up NBC's chest-beating assertions. In the first five weeks of the television season, Jay Leno has opened up his biggest lead in five years. Mr. Leno draws 2 million more viewers than Mr. Letterman's "Late Show," 5.8 million to 3.8 million. And Mr. Leno enjoys his biggest edge ever in the rivalry for 18-to-49-year-old viewers, the ones NBC - and many advertisers - most covet.
Not surprisingly, the Letterman side has some aggressive counterarguments, from the weakness of much of CBS's lineup of shows at 10 p.m. and the late news of CBS stations, to new quirks in the television ratings system.
But the show's lagging performance and Mr. Letterman's apparent disinclination to take any special steps to deal with the ratings falloff cannot help but be worrisome to CBS executives. The "Late Show" gave CBS a huge profit center it never had before the network hired Mr. Letterman 10 years ago, and if the ratings trend continues, tens of millions of dollars in advertising revenue may be at stake.
Mr. Leno's ratings lead is not new. He has held it, with varying margins, for the past eight years. But with the biggest lead in five years, NBC executives are willing, even eager, to go for Mr. Letterman's jugular. NBC also seems bent on trying to redress critical slights that Mr. Leno has suffered while Mr. Letterman has been consistently winning awards and praise as a comic genius.
Indeed, if they had penalties for taunting in television, NBC would surely draw a flag. "I think there are two factors here," Mr. Zucker said in a telephone interview. "The 'Tonight' show has gotten stronger because Jay and his producer, Debbie Vickers, have brought freshness to the comedy; and I think the Letterman show appears more tired."
He added: "I think it's hard for the national media to accept the fact that Jay is so dominant. The national media has always been more drawn to the dark, brooding cynicism of Dave, rather than the populist wit of Jay."
Rob Burnett, one of Mr. Letterman's executive producers, offers the consistent CBS response to Mr. Leno's ratings lead: no matter what the ratings say, Mr. Letterman remains the more original, more worthy talent.
"There are two parts of the so-called late-night war," Mr. Burnett said. "One is: who's the best. That part of the war is over. Dave won."
(Like Mr. Zucker, Mr. Burnett was serving as a surrogate commentator because both stars declined to comment themselves.)
"Jay runs the 'Tonight' show like a political campaign," Mr. Burnett added. "If he thinks something will attract more viewers, he'll do it. Jay sees that Arnold Schwarzenegger is hot, so he introduces Arnold at a political rally. He sees that wrestling is hot, so he wrestles for the W.W.F. Maybe Jay earned himself a few more viewers for doing those things, but you have to ask yourself: Who would you rather be? Jay or Dave?"
Mr. Burnett and CBS executives do offer some mitigating circumstances for Mr. Letterman's flagging ratings fortunes. Thanks to shows like "Law & Order" and "E.R.," NBC has a much stronger lineup at 10 p.m., the better to funnel more viewers to late local news, which is also far stronger on NBC stations, and then into the "Tonight" show.
While that state of affairs is not new, this year's strange disappearance of younger male viewers has disproportionately affected Mr. Letterman. He is off by 65 percent in that group, one of the highest declines in television. By contrast, Mr. Leno is off by less than 20 percent. (Nielsen Media Research insists the numbers are correct. Network executives are skeptical.)
Even with these explanations, CBS's top research executive, David F. Poltrack, conceded, "You have to acknowledge the 'Tonight' show has been resilient this season."
It has also been making more money. According to a Nielsen cost analysis based on last season's three ratings sweep months, 30-second commercials in "Tonight" cost about $65,000, while those in "Late Show" cost about $53,000. Over a season that differential could mean about $40 million extra in revenue for NBC.
NBC can use the extra funds, especially in a season when its prime-time performance is in decline. Hit shows like "Frasier" and "E.R." are down, the network's showcase new comedy "Coupling" has already been dropped and its pillar of strength, "Friends," has lost viewers and will not return next season in any case. For its part, CBS makes tens of millions a year on "Late Show" - Mr. Burnett estimated that CBS had made $1 billion on Mr. Letterman over the past decade. But CBS takes in less profit than NBC because costs for the "Late Show" are, according to an executive who has seen both contracts, close to $50 million a year higher than for the "Tonight" show. (Mr. Letterman alone is paid $31 million a year; Mr. Leno's salary is about $16 million.)
Still, Mr. Letterman gives CBS an essential profit center and a daily, talked-about show, which the network never had before he arrived in 1993. For that reason, and Mr. Letterman's laserlike focus on the creative aspects of the show, CBS executives are hesitant to urge ideas on him about ways to lift his ratings - things Mr. Leno routinely does but Mr. Letterman resists, like promotion campaigns with CBS stations or other attempts at special publicity.
After being hotly pursued by ABC last year, Mr. Letterman signed a new five-year contract with CBS. It has four years left to run, though he has the right to opt out with a year's notice. That notice has to be given in August, and since he didn't do that this past summer, Mr. Letterman seems guaranteed to be on the air two more years at the very least.
"I think Dave wants to continue," Mr. Burnett said. "Right now, I see no sign of him wanting to stop."
But Mr. Letterman takes almost twice as many weeks off a year as Mr. Leno (13 to 7), and last summer he tried to cut his workweek by one day (an experiment that died quickly when ratings for guest hosts plummeted). As always, he pursues his own muse, making judgments based on his personal feel for what's funny, even when it seems to some that a long-running comedy bit, may, as Mr. Burnett put it, be starting to annoy viewers. (One recent example mentioned by some fans is Mr. Letterman's fondness for bringing a young personal assistant on the air almost every night.)
What hopes the Letterman side retains to stage a comeback rest largely on an improving CBS. The network added a new Monday hit drama at 10 p.m. last year, "C.S.I. Miami," and the gap between the two shows on Mondays narrowed.
That is apparent evidence that lead-ins are critical in late night, a case Mr. Burnett has been hammering away at for years. "I've always wondered why the ratings for prime-time shows are judged relative to their lead-in, but somehow late-night shows escape this standard."
In the short term, one wild card could factor into the competition: the imminent birth of Mr. Letterman's first child, a development that could prove a new inspiration for the comedian - or may not change anything.
Either way, the last line of defense for Mr. Letterman's side is always his legacy. "Look at the cultural relevance of the two shows," Mr. Burnett said. "Jay does not have the ear of America. After the tragedy of 9/11, which of the two men did the country want to hear? At times like that you tend to turn to the guy who doesn't wrestle."
NBC, however, seems extremely content to have Mr. Leno on its side. "What's important to us is that we have the guy who gets the most viewers," Mr. Zucker said.
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