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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry S. who wrote (49690)	11/4/2003 8:10:28 AM
From: Ron McKinnon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

fwiw morning comments by "Rev Shark" Morning Outlook 11/04/03 07:42 AM ET "Luck is the sense to recognize an opportunity and the ability to take advantage of it. The man who can smile at his breaks and grab his chances gets on." -- Samuel Goldwyn For seven months now we have been hearing reasons from the bears for why this market shouldn't be rallying. Many of the arguments are logical and sound and will ultimately prove to be correct. Unfortunately, for the pessimists the market isn't paying any attention to the negative scenarios. If you are making good money in this market you are making it on the long side. The key to generating market beating returns is to press an advantage when you have that one. Even if the market seems to be irrational and illogical, the folks who keep pushing when they have an edge are the ones who will prosper. Theoretical arguments about why the market should move one way or the other can seldom compete with the profits generated by catching a strong surge of momentum. For many cautious investors, far more money is lost by overanticipation of events than is actually lost in the event. The different between pressing when things are going your way vs. selling and/or buying prematurely can make or break your performance. When your luck is running and the opportunities are popping up at a quick pace, don't be afraid to take advantage. The money you can make when it feels like you are too late to the party can dwarf the losses you incur even if the market turns on you. The folks who made the big money back in the bubble days were those who dared to walk the high wire as we flew higher and higher. They don't overanticipate a turn. They reacted once there were clear signs of trouble. Ultimately they benefited to a far greater degree than the skeptics who had turned bearish far too early. Even in this somewhat extended market there continue to be many good opportunities on the long side. Don't allow yourself to become paralyzed by arguments that doomsday is on the horizon. Press your luck when it is running strong but be prepared to act quickly when the action indicates trouble is at hand. Yesterday we saw clear breakouts to new highs in most of the key indices. Volume was lacking in some cases but breadth was solid and the bulls clearly have some momentum. The big question now is whether we can build on the breakout. Unfortunately, the move to a new high comes without much technical support. We are mildly overbought. We have had little basing action or consolidation and that makes it tougher for us to continue to move straight up. However, don't be too quick to assume that a somewhat extended market means that we have major downside potential right now. One of the most dominate themes of this market has been the persistence of the dip-buyers. Over and over the pullbacks have been aggressively bought, producing V-shaped reversals. There are simply too many folks looking for entries at better prices. They are the bids under this market and they will prevent a major meltdown, especially in this seasonally positive time of the year. We have slightly negative action in the early going. European markets are flat and Asia was strong after a holiday in Japan. Gold is up and oil down. ISM services and factory orders numbers are due out at 10 a.m. EST. We still have earnings reports rolling in but nothing too major until Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) tomorrow evening. It should continue to be a good trading market for adept stock pickers. There are pockets of strength and a lot of money looking to catch the hot stocks of the day. Be ready to roll. It's going to be another interesting day.