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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carragher who wrote (26849)	11/4/2003 8:53:46 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206085

DJ. Nymex Dec Natural Gas Futures End Up On Cold Forecasts By John Edmiston OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--The New York Mercantile Exchange December natural gas contract Tuesday finished in the $4.70s per million British thermal units, spinning upward on the potential of bullish fundamentals that have yet to hit home. Inconsistent weather forecasts, still showing a hint of winter by the weekend; another relatively large storage build Thursday; weak next-day physical gas pricing and slight concern about a possible resurgence of a tropical storm in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico all rattled the market inside a $4.585-$4.79/MMBtu range. "You've got a tale of two seasons," said one trader. With the shoulder period running into November, "you're seeing few signs of winter." A two-day cold front won't mean much, he said, but a five to seven day cold front "with another right behind it, then you might have a winter." "It's obvious the cold is coming in," said ABN Amro's Gerry Saccente in New York. In the meantime, in the market area of the Northeast, traders pointed to flow restrictions on some pipelines heavy with winter gas. Selling that gas would knock next-day pricing even more, a trader said. "You saw a little bit of everything with the continued consolidation," said Ed Kennedy of Commercial Brokerage Corp. Good support levels were seen at $4.64-$4.65/MMBtu with scale-down selling there before locals bought it upward, he said. "I can't call it a bottom, although it's impressive support," Kennedy said. To complete a bottom for the market, he said, he needs to see a close "over $5/MMBtu - a long way from here." The uncertainty over weather to come has people on the sidelines, he said. Looking ahead to Thursday's Energy Information Administration gas storage report, traders expect to see another build of about 42 billion cubic feet up to 55 bcf to add to the 3.121 trillion cubic feet already in storage for the winter. That compares with a pull of 27 bcf a year ago, a build of 20 bcf in 2001, a three-year average build of 10 bcf and a five-year average build of 20 bcf, said Kyle Cooper of Citigroup Inc. in Houston. A build of only 24 bcf would eliminate the storage deficit from a year ago, and a build of 31 bcf would lift inventories to 2001 levels. Cooper said. Gas prices in 2001 were $3.25/MMBtu at the end of October and in the mid-to-upper $2/MMBtu range by the middle of November 2001. Also, markets on Wednesday might react somewhat to crude and gasoline inventories, but "most expect to sit and wait for Thursday's report," said Cooper. On Tuesday, December settled at $4.727/MMBtu, up 2.2 cents. January finished at $4.977/MMBtu, down 0.6 cent. The 12-month average price finished around $4.729/MMBtu, up 0.7 cent. Nymex December crude futures settled at $28.75/barrel, down 15 cents. Physical gas at the benchmark Henry Hub finished the morning session in a $3.86-$4.15/MMBtu range. First-of-month November index was set at $4.45/MMBtu by Platts Inside Ferc. -By John Edmiston, Dow Jones Newswires; 713-547-9209; john.edmiston@dowjones.com