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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mathemagician who wrote (54609)	11/4/2003 10:05:13 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Respond to of 54805

Hi Mathmagician, Could you please refer to any 10 year period that qualifies as "normal market conditions"? And if we're going to properly design an experiment to eliminate Nyquist noise, wouldn't we need 20 years in which to run our test. Is there a 20 year period you can find that is "normal"? Personally, I don't believe that we as investors have the luxury of waiting for "normal" periods in which to invest, or against which to test "novel" investment theories before we put them in action for ourselves. We have to make investing decisions in the here and now, 'cause that's all that's available to us. And if we are picking theories on which to base our decisions, we should be trying to find those which are robust to some extent or another against the vagaries of abnormality that show up from time to time and in any reasonably long timeframe we choose to pick. Personally, I believe that "under-valued for the long term" is one such robust mechanism. As long as I can support a theory why folks five or ten years or someodd days from now would want to exchange their cash for my stocks and pay much more than I did... well, I win. It doesn't matter if I think that these folk are going to be enthusiasticly manic boomers, foolishly ploughing every last dime of their savings into the NASD barrel of monkeys in hopes of catching gorillas within. Nor does it matter if I think these folk are going to be desperately retiring boomers helplessly trapped against the prospect of limited income and a rising standard of living and desperately seeking sources of cash flow. Either scenario might pan out, but not likely at the same time. One might go before the other. Perhaps with some "normal" period in between.