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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (1814)	11/4/2003 10:59:00 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<layoff announcements lead payroll growth given the time lag between announcement and actual layoffs.> Well, that ain't good as October is already a wage (if not employment) disaster. I wonder if some of the trouble WMT is having on employment policy might show up some at the bottom of the wage earner spectrum? You've got to believe this isn't just a "minor" practice. A bunch of illegals might be let go? biz.yahoo.com I've been reading some of Biderman's comments, and it seems the thing that may be keeping the stock market levitated is the dearth of IPOs, combined with the steady stream of fund contributions. The speculative froth on top of the mud pie is of course the ramped up margin buying. It won't take much to crumble the whole edifice, but the catalyst would seem to be a big IPO surge. Maybe the Orbitz and Google deal will be it, when it comes. I doubt if anyone here subscribes to TrimTabs as it's an extremely expensive service, but he does provide the three week lag issue, and talks about this. Hit link to full weekly report, four pages; trimtabs.com Wall Street has capacity for $10B in new supply a week, but the Oct. 2 week was only 2.715B, and Oct 9 was 2.969B. I flipped through the Yahoo IPO news page, biz.yahoo.com don't know how accurate it is or if it's even loosely correlated with Biderman's methodology, but I counted only about 1.5B sold last week, and only about 1.1B the week before. There are a whole bunch of shelves announced over the last several months, and maybe that would get factored in? I just don't have the data source to know.