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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (1828)	11/4/2003 4:36:44 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Investment Outlook Bill Gross \| November 2003 Two Different Worlds (We live in...) pimco.com The banks are levered 10 parts assets to one part capital to begin with. The hedgies the same. Agencies even more. As their asset durations move higher, the more susceptible we become as an economy to going kaput as well should interest rates rise. All the levered players mentioned above are making hay while the short borrowing rate is at 1%. Change that borrowing rate by much Alan Greenspan and you risk another bubble popping – this time the U.S. economy

To: russwinter who wrote (1828)	11/4/2003 11:28:56 PM
From: ldo79	Respond to of 110194

I'm wondering if the impending BOE hike, or the recently announced Auzzie hike, has got anything to do with a $3.50 uptick at this time of night (or day). ldo79

To: russwinter who wrote (1828)	11/5/2003 8:58:37 AM
From: Silver Super Bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, RE: "I think the Fed is tightening some." I'd be curious if you think this tightening will be sustained, and if so, why. As you point out this type of thing doesn't seem to occur often. DB

To: russwinter who wrote (1828)	11/6/2003 6:59:32 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I think the Fed is tightening some M3 seems to be rolling over. Weldon has been noting this as well. i can't believe this will be good for gold stocks, but maybe i am missing something. low interest rates were gold's best friend. out of my collection of 15 or so gold stocks, at least half were up at least 150% since the spring. (unfortunately, the garbage half in which i had invested less :( i am uncomfortable when 2- and 3-baggers or more are as easy as throwing darts at some gold-stock newsletter... i have sold them all, holdings cut over 90% since peaking a week ago, except for a vestige of my NEM position i am hoping will chug over the 1yr long-term cap gains finish line in a couple weeks without losing too much weight. Lewis has been quite bearish on gold stocks, as they are basically showing the same bubble dynamics as Internet trash at this point. Russell seems like the only thing keeping him from pressing the SELL button is "wife Faye". could the coming ETF mark a high point? who knows... interesting comment from ContraryInvestor at the end of their latest issue: ... as you know, when "everyone" is afraid to sell too soon, it's simply axiomatic that they ultimately will sell...when it's too late, of course. That lies in our future. And it should be quite a sight to behold. used some of the proceeds to buy 6yr Gilts... There is no such thing as a bear (who will put up his money) anymore. count me in. the only thing that didn't work this year was shorts. cost me 2.4% of portfolio. i'd like to think a similar allocation in LEAPS puts at this point could result in a five- or ten-bagger, or at least appease the gods of easy returns in the coming years... it's tough for me to come up with the will to make this play, though. how could it be otherwise when the getting's good...