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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12351)	11/4/2003 5:01:48 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95420

IC-equipment forecast lowered amid lithography shortfall By Mark LaPedus Silicon Strategies 11/04/2003, 3:00 PM ET siliconstrategies.com NEW TRIPOLI, Pa. -- Sluggish sales for lithography gear, capital spending delays, and other factors have caused one research firm to lower its chip-equipment forecast by nearly 50 percent in 2003. On the bright side, the chip-equipment market is expected to rebound and grow by 21 percent in 2004 over 2003, according to The Information Network, a research firm based in New Tripoli. The Information Network originally projected that the chip-equipment market would grow by 7.3 percent in 2003. The market has begun its long-awaited recovery--albeit a small upswing, according to the report from The Information Network. Now, however, the firm projects that the chip-equipment sector will grow by only 3.8 percent in 2003, due to the poor performance of the lithography business, which makes up 26 percent of the total equipment market, according to the market research firm. The lithography sector will drop 4.6 percent in 2003, dragging down the entire market, according to the report. "We had anticipated a growth rate of 7.3 percent for equipment in early 2003," said Robert N. Castellano, president of The Information Network. "But semiconductor manufacturers are continuing to under invest despite dramatic growth in its markets in 2003, pegged to increase 14.2 percent. These companies would rather risk losing market share than spend money that would lower their profits and affect stock prices--a pitiful situation--which has led us to reduce those forecasts nearly in half to 3.8 percent." In fact, Q1 2003 over Q1 2002 growth of 11.6 percent gave way to a disastrous Q2 when sales dropped 19.3 percent, because of semiconductor manufacturers' preference of profits over investments and capital spending, he said. Q3 revenues came in at about parity with Q3 2002, paving the way for a strong growth trend that will last through 2005, he added. The new ITRS roadmap supports smaller geometries, new materials, and an increase in wafer size to 300-mm, which will drive the capital spending ratio of device manufacturers back above 20 percent of semiconductor sales, the report said. Demand for 200-mm equipment to upgrade existing fabs of top tier customers and foundries to 0.13-micron and copper, combined with dramatically renewed strength in Taiwan should be the drivers of the improved order trend, it added. Complete recovery will take place in 2004 when the equipment market will grow 21 percent, buoyed by very aggressive buildup in semiconductor capacity, according to the report.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12351)	11/4/2003 8:35:24 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95420

This is the same subject as commented on in the previous post, but it has a little different information. cbs.marketwatch.com Layoffs more than double in October By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 10:01 AM ET Nov. 4, 2003 WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Layoff announcements from U.S. companies more than doubled in October to 171,874, the highest in a year, according to the monthly tally released Tuesday by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas. October is typically the largest months for layoff notices, as companies slash costs at the end of the fiscal year. The Challenger survey is not adjusted for seasonal factors. Layoff announcements had fallen for three months in a row before October's 125 percent increase. Layoffs hit bottom in June with 59,715. "While perhaps shocking to some, the October spike follows a trend of heavy year-end downsizing that has occurred since we began tracking job cuts in 1993," said John Challenger, the CEO of the company that bears his name. "With factors like technology, outsourcing and consolidation working against job creation, any job market rebound we see in the near future will be relatively small," Challenger said. The Challenger survey tracks layoff announcements from corporations, not actual reductions, which may occur immediately or not for several months. Some of the reductions are accomplished by voluntary terminations, such as retirements or quitting. In October, the auto industry sacked 28,363 workers, followed by 21,169 in the retail sector. Telecommunications companies cut 21,030. So far in 2003, 1.04 million job reductions have been announced, the third year in a row exceeding 1 million. In 2001, 1.96 million jobs were cut; in 2002, 1.47 million jobs were cut. In a separate poll conducted by Challenger of corporate personnel managers, 78 percent said there would not be a significant rebound in hiring before the second quarter of 2004. Eleven percent said the rebound would come in the third or fourth quarter and 11 percent said there wouldn't be a rebound in 2004. No one expected a rebound within the next six months.