As we know, American Spirit believes his favorite candidate, Senator Kerry, can defeat President Bush. Here are my thoughts on what it will take to do so:
2004 marks a change in the electoral college due to the 2000 census and its measurement of population shifts. The states whose electoral totals change:
uselectionatlas.org
States Gaining Electoral Votes:
Arizona +2 (solid Republican state)
California +1 (usually Dem. state)
Colorado +1 (always Repub. except 92 due to large Perot vote)
Florida +2 (toss up crucial state)
Georgia +2 (trending strongly Republican lately)
Nevada +1 (Bush only won by 3 1/2 percent; Clinton won twice)
North Carolina +1 (Repubs. control)
Texas +2 (Bush wins easily)
States Losing Electoral Votes:
Wisconsin -1 (toss up state that Gore won so narrowly a recount could have been demanded)
Connecticut -1 (usually Dem.)
Illinois -1 (trending strongly Dem. lately; Bush very unpopular here)
Indiana -1 (usually Rep., unlike rest of Midwest)
Michigan -1 (usually Dem., though supported Reagan -- Gore won by 5 percent)
Mississippi -1 (trending strongly Republican in Presidential elections; becoming Republican in local elections)
New York -2 (Dems. control)
Ohio -1 (Bush won by 3 1/2 percent; Clinton won twice)
Oklahoma -1 (always Repub.)
Pennsylvania -2 (Gore won by less than 4 percent; last Dem. to lose was Dukakis)
The net effect of these changes, in my analysis, favors Republicans. Arizona, Colorado, Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia can be expected to vote Republican, and among them that is a gain of 8 electoral votes. California's additional vote will likely go to the Dems. The other three votes are one in Nevada, a likely though not certain Repub. state, and 2 in Florida, a toss up state. So of the 12 gained electoral votes, 8 are solidly Republican, 1 is likely Republican, 1 is solidly Democrat, and 2 are a toss up.
Where do those 12 votes get taken from? More than half (7) come from the Democrat strongholds or Democrat-leaning swing states: Connecticut (1); Illinois (1); Michigan (1); New York (2); and Pennsylvania (2). Of the other five, three are likely taken from the Republicans (Indiana (1); Oklahoma (1); and Mississippi (1)). One is from a swing state that the Republicans won last time (Ohio), and the other is from a toss up state the Democrats won narrowly (Wisconsin).
The net effect: Of the twelve shifting votes, the Republicans end up with 11 of them if they win Florida (and 9 if they lose Florida). Those same 12 votes last time were Democrats 8, Republicans 4. That's a shift of 5-7 electoral votes just from the census.
In my view that makes it very hard for the Democrats to win. For a 25-year-old voting next November, the Democrats have never in his lifetime won the following states (electoral votes in parentheses):
Alaska (3)
Colorado (9)
Idaho (4)
North Dakota (3)
South Dakota (3)
Nebraska (5)
Kansas (6)
Oklahoma (7)
Texas (34)
Indiana (11)
Alabama (9)
Mississippi (6)
South Carolina (8)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Utah (5)
Wyoming (3)
That's 144 electoral votes to start with, in states that Democrats can't seem to touch.
Now, add to that other states that Bush won by at least a five percent margin in 2000 (margin of victory over Gore in parentheses):
Arizona (5%) (10 electoral votes)
Arkansas (5%) (6 electoral votes)
Georgia (11%) (15 electoral votes)
Kentucky (15%) (8 electoral votes)
Louisiana (7%) (9 electoral votes)
Montana (25%) (3 electoral votes)
West Virginia (6%) (5 electoral votes)
That's another 56 electoral votes in states Bush won rather easily in 2000. 26 of those 56 are in states that Bush won by a huge margin in 2000; I don't see the Democrats touching those.
So Bush starts the election, it seems to me, with a solid grasp on 200 electoral votes. He needs 70 more to win.
Where will those 70 come from?
To begin with, there are a number of states in which Republicans have the upper hand though they don't win every time. Bush won each of these states by between 3 and 5 percent in 2000. Our hypothetical 25-year-old voting next Fall has, in his lifetime, only seen one Democrat, Bill Clinton, win these states.
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
Nevada (5 electoral votes)
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Tennessee (11 electoral votes)
That's a total of 47 more electoral votes (and a total of 28 states) that Bush has to be considered the favorite to win at this point. That leaves him 23 short of reelection.
Of the other 22 states plus DC, the Democrats have a fairly strong hold on:
New York (31)
California (55)
Illinois (21)
Washington (11)
Washington DC (3)
Vermont (3)
Rhode Island (4)
New Jersey (15)
Michigan (17)
Massachusetts (12)
Maryland (10)
Maine (4)
Hawaii (4)
Delaware (3)
Connecticut (7)
That's 200 electoral votes, and leaves 8 states where the battle will once again take place:
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
The key is that the battle begins, thanks in part to the shift in electoral votes due to the census, with Bush already ahead by 247-200.
Less than one percentage point separated winner from loser in 2000 in six of those states: Florida, Wisconsin, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Iowa. In five of those six states, the margin was less than half a percentage point. The other two states (Minnesota and Pennsylvania) leaned Democratic but by less than five percentage points.
If the Democrats lose Florida this time, they could win every other close state and every state that they won comfortably last time and they would still lose the election. Even if the Dems manage to win Florida, for them it’s not enough: it would leave them with 268 if they win Minnesota and Pennsylvania, and they would still need to win one of the other toss-up states from 2000.
Against this backdrop, Democrats should be troubled by the recent polls which indicated that Bush’s support among his base is very strong. For the Democrats to win, they must hang on to every single inch of their base, AND win Florida, AND win one of the other toss up states. That could prove to be a tall order next year.
For Democrats supporting Kerry, the real question is how he will do in the six toss-up states:
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
He either has to win Florida and one of the others, or he has to break into Bush's base. If he doesn't accomplish either task, he loses.
The last Massachusetts candidate to run won Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oregon, but lost Florida, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. The one before that, John Kennedy, won only one of those six states (New Mexico), though he did win the Presidency. If Kerry does the same as either of his recent Massachusetts predecessors, he'll lose. |
