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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (25847)	11/6/2003 1:15:41 AM
From: Mr. Sunshine	Respond to of 25960

<<Fairly valued at 45 based on what?>> Did I write fairly valued or fully valued? Regardless, CYMI should have strong earnings once the recovery happens. I am just not sure the potential future earnings justify a current price of over $45. I like Cymer as a company, and will keep a small position just to keep tabs on what is happening in this very interesting part of the SCE sector.

To: BWAC who wrote (25847)	11/7/2003 9:57:55 AM
From: chomolungma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Fairly valued at 45 based on what? It can't be earnings. Which average only 55 cents a year thru the entire last cycle. And earnings which are currently nonexistant and have been so all year long. The market doesn't look at the last cycle in valuing Cymer. They are looking at the next cycle when DUV will reach it's "sweet spot." About a year ago, the company said that they thought the market for their products would exceed $1 billion at the top of the next cycle. Since Cymer is still in a dominant market position, it's not hard to see them getting the lion's share of that business. ($800, $900 million?) Now historically, the best semiconductor equipment companies will sell at between 2 and 7 times revenue (I'm using AMAT, KLAC and NVLS the last 9 years taking the average of the high and low price/sales ratios) Even a 3 P/S ratio on $800 million translates to a $68 stock price. A 5 gives you $113. Now I've read enough of your posts to know that you don't believe for a second that will happen, but don't be surprised when there are those out there who don't share your dismal view of the future.