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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12398)	11/5/2003 8:03:57 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 95420

Thanks for the table, Don. I actually think the Nov 25 date is very likely.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12398)	11/5/2003 8:07:22 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95420

Here is another update on chip sales. <<UPDATE 2-Global chip sales to rise 16 pct in 2003-forecast 11/5/2003 4:56:53 PM SAN FRANCISCO, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Global semiconductor sales are set to rise nearly 16 percent this year in an accelerating recovery led by demand in Japan and the rest of Asia, and powered by sales of chips used in communications, a trade group forecast on Wednesday. The San Jose, California-based Semiconductor Industry Association raised its 2003 sales forecast to growth of 15.8 percent from its prior forecast of 10.1 percent growth. The SIA forecast is based on actual sales data for the first nine months of the year. For 2004, semiconductor sales are now projected to grow 19.4 percent, up from the the trade group's previous forecast of 16.8 percent growth. According to the SIA forecast, the largest increase by product segment this year, at a projected 34.7 percent growth, is expected to be optoelectronics, which includes laser devices, image sensors and other chips used in communications. Another strong product is expected to be digital signal processors, which convert sound, temperature and light into the digital language of computers. Sales of such chips, widely used in cell phones and many other devices, are projected to grow 25.9 percent this year and 27.1 percent next year. Sales of microprocessors -- the "brains" of a computer -- are forecast to grow 14.4 percent this year and 18.3 percent next year. Sales of flash memory, widely used in cell phones and other devices like digital cameras, are expected to grow 42.7 percent this year and 36.4 percent next year, the SIA said. The chip industry has been in the doldrums since global sales plunged 32 percent in 2001 as corporate spending slowed and dot-com companies failed, dragging the overall economy down. Chip sales rose a mere 1.3 percent last year. Even assuming that chip sales rebound this year and next by the projected margins, sales will stand at $194.6 billion, below the $204 billion recorded in the peak year of 2000. A year ago, the SIA had optimistically forecast that sales would increase 20 percent for 2003, but the war in Iraq and the spread of the SARS virus in Asia earlier this year prompted it to lower its prediction as business was disrupted. The SIA forecast that growth in chip sales would slow to 5.8 percent in 2005 and 6.6 percent in 2006. ASIA GROWING FASTEST, AMERICAS LAG Asia continues to see the strongest regional growth, the trade group said. Sales in Japan were forecast to grow 24.3 percent this year, followed by 17.9 percent growth in 2004, 4.6 percent in 2005, and 4.4 percent in 2006. The slowest growth this year will be in the Americas, at 1.9 percent, followed by a 17.7 percent increase in 2004, a 1.7 percent rise in 2005 and up 6.4 percent in 2006, the SIA forecast. In Europe, sales are expected to rise 17.3 percent this year, 14.7 percent in 2004, 5.9 percent in 2005, and 6.3 percent in 2006, it said. The stronger forecast was the latest positive news for the beleaguered industry. On Sunday, the SIA said global chip sales rose nearly 14 percent in the third quarter from the prior quarter, while September sales rose 6.5 percent from August, the strongest percentage gain since 1990. On Tuesday, National Semiconductor Corp. (NSM) revised its fiscal 2004 second-quarter sales forecast upward on strong order rates. SIA said sales of memory products are expected to remain volatile along with prices. The overall market is forecast to rise 16.6 percent this year and 32.3 percent next year but decline 10.1 percent in 2005 and then rise 18.2 percent in 2006. Sales of dynamic random access memory, also called DRAM, are expected to grow 7.9 percent in 2003, 35 percent next year and decline 20 percent in 2005 before rebounding with 30 percent growth in 2006.>>