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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (1872)	11/5/2003 9:27:30 PM
From: loantech	Respond to of 110194

<Tom, this from the TOL report. The question I have of you is, can anything go wrong with these contracts, or are they as good as gold ? $580,535 per house> Russ I am not sure I understand the question. Sorry. Tom

To: russwinter who wrote (1872)	11/5/2003 9:27:50 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 110194

russwinter, TOL contracts typically got all kinds of hooks, penalties that can be quite severe, especially for all the add ons or upgrades for this price range house. For those trading up, the low end market is still very strong and TOL probably not experiencing much cancellations. In my experience, buyers are most willing to act when rates start heading up. It creates an urgency. That will end when rates are indeed too high and no one is willing nor able to qualify for their dream homes. That prudentbear article raised some points but they are missing the big picture. Real estate cycles are slow and this one especially. For any comparison to be meaningful, we need to look back to at least early 1990s. Instead of seeing how much contribution refi play at different interest rate levels, you can then see how trying to keep up with house payments is a drain on liquidity. Come Friday, we have new employment data again. May be that will shed some light on the subject. For the real estate market to not tank, or at least turn down, we must have employment growth. This jobless recovery is not going to cut it.