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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (40935)	11/6/2003 12:47:13 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay the cat seems to be catching mice with PICC. "He is of the tribe that says white is black, black is black, and grey is also black, always, without exception, and forever" I still have a fair amount of KCS, which is up today as we get closer to earnings release, and TMR, whic is up for the same reason. Bought some HL & PAL, sold some PD and N, since I think the precious metal side will do better than bqase metals for the next week. I have also gone to 30% cash -expecting a drop the next few days. I expect the employment numbers will not be as good this month as hoped, and the market will be overbought. Many traders have had a good year, and head towards cash, selling winners (long term since late 2002) and short term losers then heading for warm beaches....

To: TobagoJack who wrote (40935)	11/6/2003 10:10:45 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

>>white is black, black is black, and grey is also black<< You know, Jay, there is something dysfunctional about the capacity of the average human to forecast the future. The tendency is to make a straight line forecast of the current trend. We saw this in the late '90s with regard to the US stock market, and we have seen it for the last couple of years with endless forecasts of TEOTWAWKI from all quarters. We are also seeing it now in the US with the widely held belief that residential real estate is a "can't lose" investment. Perhaps a neurologist could explain this. So, I am not sure why you do not have a broader appreciation of my posts of the last two years explaining why the US is experiencing a normal cyclical recovery and that TEOTWAWKI is not imminent. To have this insight characterized as you did above is unreasonable, imho. Now, it is clear that you are generally moving to a more bullish stance. I am happy to have the company. The bulls will do very, very well over the next 6 or 7 years within the context of a powerful coordinated surge of global economic growth.