Time for the "Think Pieces" on the South now that the two Governor's races are decided. There will be a bigger outpouring of these when Bobby wins in Louisiana. That will give them 30 out of 50 Governors. I think it means that the Republicans now have just as strong a hold in the South as the Dixicrats used to have.
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November 6, 2003
G.O.P. Extends Statehouse Sweeps, but What Do They Mean for '04?
By MICHAEL JANOFSKY NEW YORK TIMES
JACKSON, Miss., Nov. 5 — Forecast as squeakers, the elections for governor in Mississippi and Kentucky turned out to be anything but on Tuesday, with Republicans comfortably on top. Haley Barbour won here by seven percentage points, defeating a Democratic incumbent, and Representative Ernie Fletcher won by 10 in Kentucky, ending 32 years of Democratic reign there.
After elections last year in which Republicans turned out Democratic governors in Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina, the latest returns were another indication of the South's rightward march.
But even with Arnold Schwarzenegger's recent victory in California, in the recall of its Democratic governor, Gray Davis, Republican Party leaders are hesitant to suggest that statehouse success in 2003 necessarily improves the chances of President Bush's re-election next year.
"A lot of times the winning party always claims their victories are a precursor," said Gov. Bill Owens of Colorado, chairman of the Republican Governors Association, which now has 29 members. "If we had lost, there would have been a lot of words spoken by the Democratic Party that reflected a lack of popularity of the Bush administration. Republicans won both states, and that is certainly good news for Republicans, but I don't want to claim it'll be a national mandate."
Even Mr. Barbour, a Washington lobbyist and former Republican national chairman, cautioned against drawing larger conclusions, although he could not resist throwing a jab at Democrats.
"I wouldn't read too much into this nationally," Mr. Barbour said at a news conference on Wednesday afternoon. "But Democrats who want to hurt President Bush in 2004 always said the best way was to beat Haley Barbour in 2003. Well, Winston Churchill once said there was nothing so exhilarating as to be shot at without results."
The current Republican chairman, Ed Gillespie, attributed the recent victories to a campaign model "that works," one the party says it has also been using to contrast President Bush with the Democrats running to replace him.
"Republicans attack problems, Democrats attack Republicans," Mr. Gillespie said. "I don't want to overstate things about national impact; governors' races are about states and leadership at the state level. That said, there are things at play, like our positive message versus their negative message, that give us momentum going into 2004."
For Democrats, the sting of the losses in Mississippi and Kentucky was at least eased by the knowledge that no Democratic presidential nominee was likely to win either state next year anyway. Mr. Bush carried Mississippi in 2000 by 17 points, and Kentucky by 16. And the rousing crowds he drew campaigning in both states last Saturday were ample evidence that his popularity remained high in the South.
In any case, Democrats scrambled to make the best of it, pointing to other returns. "Last night was a mixed bag for us," said Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic national chairman. "I would love to have kept those two governorships, but we did great in Pennsylvania, and we can't win next year without Pennsylvania."
A battleground state with 21 electoral votes — and 23 visits so far by President Bush, the most of any state — Pennsylvania produced a number of victories for Democrats, including John Street's re-election as mayor of Philadelphia. Mr. McAuliffe said those victories offered signs that the state would resist the kind of Republican drift moving through the South.
At the same time, some leading Democrats suggested that the returns last month in California and on Tuesday in Mississippi and Kentucky — where Mr. Fletcher defeated the Democratic candidate, State Attorney General Ben Chandler — were actually bad news for President Bush. Gov. Gary Locke of Washington, chairman of the Democratic Governors' Association, maintained that the national economy, moribund until recently, "has triggered a strong anti-incumbent mood in the electorate."
"National Republicans should take no joy in what was really a vote to change the status quo," Mr. Locke added. "This is an unsettled electorate looking for change, and that mood is likely to linger through next year's presidential election."
Some Republicans found that notion preposterous. "Three Republican governors in three weeks," said Representative Tom DeLay of Texas, the House majority leader. "I've got to tell you, only the makers of the Reagan TV movie could argue that this is somehow bad news for the G.O.P. in 2004."
If in fact there was any bad news for Republicans nationally on Tuesday, there was none here in Mississippi. Ballots were still being counted on Wednesday, but Mr. Barbour had about 53 percent of the vote, to 45 percent for the Democratic incumbent, Ronnie Musgrove.
Befitting his reputation as a master strategist credited with helping engineer the Republican Congressional sweep of 1994, Mr. Barbour managed to overcome the Democratic argument that as a Washington-based operative, he was out of touch with problems facing ordinary Mississippians. Mr. Musgrove placed blame for the state's rising unemployment rate, for instance, on Mr. Bush and his tax policies.
Mr. Barbour, a tireless and garrulous campaigner, convinced voters that his ties to Washington, including friends in the highest of places, would eventually reverse social and economic trends that have left Mississippi suffering.
Indeed, he said, Mr. Bush called him at 9 p.m. on Tuesday, apologizing for not waiting until the result was official but certain nonetheless that he would win.
"He said he hoped to call me to congratulate me," Mr. Barbour said. "But he told me, `I'm going to bed.' "
The Vote Elsewhere
By The Associated Press
Among the mayoral elections on Tuesday were those in San Francisco, where City Supervisor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, and Matt Gonzalez of the Green Party advanced to a runoff; in Houston, where Bill White, a deputy energy secretary in the Clinton administration, won a runoff spot against City Councilman Orlando Sanchez; and in Indianapolis, where Mayor Bart Peterson, a Democrat, defeated his Republican opponent, Greg Jordan.
nytimes.com |
