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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carragher who wrote (15419)	11/6/2003 2:08:27 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 793772

Polls show Blanco, Jindal are in a tight race Turnout will be key to victory, observers say Thursday November 06, 2003 By Robert Travis Scott Capital bureau BATON ROUGE -- It's too close to call. That's the message from two independent statewide voter polls released Wednesday on the Nov. 15 gubernatorial runoff between Democrat Kathleen Blanco and Republican Bobby Jindal. From Our Advertiser Jindal leads with 44 percent to Blanco's 40 percent among likely voters polled by the Survey Research Center at the University of New Orleans, but those numbers represent a statistical tie considering the possible margin of error in the poll. Blanco leads with 39 percent to Jindal's 38 percent among registered voters in a poll by Loyola University political scientist Ed Renwick for WWL-TV. That measure includes how voters are "leaning" in the race. In the New Orleans area, Jindal leads with 41 percent to Blanco's 32 percent. Renwick's poll also showed that Democratic incumbent Robert Wooley leads Republican challenger Dan Kyle 27 percent to 19 percent in the insurance commissioner race, with the majority of voters still undecided. "This race is going to be a close race, like we've always said," Jindal spokesman Trey Williams said. "In the last days of this race the undecided is going to come our way, because we're ready for a change in Louisiana." "The race is close, as we expected it to be," said Blanco spokesman Ed Pratt. "Voters continue to hear our message and we will be victorious." Mayor Ray Nagin's endorsement of Jindal on Monday could not have influenced the UNO poll. Paid for by the state as part of an education project, the UNO poll surveyed 731 registered voters from Oct. 25 to Saturday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 points. The Renwick poll, paid for by WWL-TV and a consortium of stations around the state, surveyed 600 registered voters from Oct. 29 to Monday and has an error factor of 4.1 points. "In many ways this election is a typical partisan contest between a Republican and a Democrat," said Survey Research Center Director Susan Howell. She characterized the results as falling into the typical patterns of Louisiana elections, with the majority of black voters supporting the Democrat and the majority of white voters, particularly men, supporting the Republican. "What this says to me is that if we have low turnout, as we did in the primary, then Jindal's got a slight lead." But for a Republican, Jindal polled better than normal among black voters, with 17 percent, Howell said. That figure drops to 12 percent, however, when adjusted for likely voters, rather than registered voters. The election could turn on any number of factors, but turnout of black and Democratic voters will be key to Blanco's chances. "When both candidates are conservative, voters have to make a decision on something else, such as who is the more aggressive reformer," she said. Among white voters, Blanco's support declines, and Jindal's increases as education and income increase, Howell said. Jindal leads Blanco in all categories of education and most categories of income. Jindal has support from more Democrats, 25 percent, than Blanco has from Republicans, 7 percent. Renwick said men equally divide their vote between the two candidates while Jindal led by three points among women. "Blanco is not picking up votes to any great extent because she is female," he said. While Jindal leads in the New Orleans area, they are tied in Acadiana, and Blanco leads in the Baton Rouge region. Wooley said he was surprised by the high number of undecided voters in the poll. But he said the 8-point spread is "about what our own polls are showing." "Polls are polls," Kyle said. "I have seen some that show us up by 5 percent. . . The poll shows that among extremely informed voters we lead. When we get our message out we win. All we have to do is inform the voters." nola.com