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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gulo who wrote (41064)	11/6/2003 9:28:23 PM
From: AC Flyer	Respond to of 74559

Gulo: >>I don't know what China's average growth rate will be, but it is considerably higher than 8% now<< Quite likely. It seems difficult to get an accurate number for Chinese GDP growth. I suspect that the CCP probably does not really know. >>I agree that will drop considerably in the near future, and might even collapse into recession if the banking system fails.<< You know, with geometric progressions, you only have to knock out the growth in a couple of in years to dramatically change the whole picture. Just ask anyone whose 401(K) was with Janus in 2000 and 2001. They'll tell you about geometric progressions. :) >>To reach the size of the U.S., China only has to achieve 1/4 the per capita GDP<< This is just another variation of the Chinese toothbrush argument - "if every Chinese citizen buys a toothbrush, then...." >>As was mentioned before, Singapore did much better than that in a single generation.<< Singapore is a tiny island with an educated population. And the Singapore economy is how big? A perfect analogy for China? Perhaps not. It is just not possible to construct a plausible time series of economic growth rates that has the Chinese economy equaling the US economy in size in less than 70 or 80 years.