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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Adams who wrote (41086)	11/7/2003 3:56:44 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Eureka! You need a minimum of 3 variables for a chaotic system. 1) There is the supply and demand of goods and services to The MarketPlace - Trade. 2) There is the supply and demand of Money to The MarketPlace. Which is introduced or witheld from The MarketPlace by the obvious cause/effects of the preference between saving/investing, and or consuming. 3)There is the supply and demand of participants to The MarketPlace (producers or consumers) - Demographics. I think that we can look at any two and come up with some sort of Island Model, thought game, or theory. There are many 2-factor models and thought games (in a time-static or even discrete time framework). These usually assume that the 3 factor is irrelevant. Trade/Money (Island games, most economics) Money/Demograhics (Consumption vs Savings/Investment - baby boomers) Trade/Demographics (Consumers vs Producers - surpluses/deficits etc.) I have never seen a 3-factor model. Why? As it is clearly impossible! To make matters worse, all 3 are quite obviously inflating. More People (we are breeding), more Trade (we are working), more Money (we have central bankers). Now that I have convinced myself that it is unsolvable, I can sit back and appreciate the futility of it all. LOL! :) -macavity