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Technology Stocks : Bookham Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Fauci who wrote (295)	11/7/2003 1:01:29 PM
From: Mahatmabenfoo	Respond to of 376

Question about VoIP How will VoIP affect Bookham? There is a theory -- increasingly less crazy with the launch of Skype and with the rocketing of 802.11 -- that traditional telecoms are DOOMED, and sooner than later. Local wires will be increasingly replaced by wireless, and switching ultimately be all on the internet via peer-to-peer self-organizing networks. Put another way, everyone's computer and handheld wireless device becomes the switch: so where in that world is there a place for Bookham? I am NOT a techy, or telecom-y, I am merely reporting the latest buzz -- which very possibly I am misinterpreting. But let's assume it's true: telecos don't revive, they die. The downturn that started in 2000 becomes terminal. In its place, the net. How does that affect Bookham? Presumably Bookham supplies the telephone-world that is the net infrastructure, in addition to the part that I am predicting will disappear. More about skype skype.com australianit.news.com.au And Skype succeeding would arguably be a GOOD thing --- or, at least, a more efficient thing. Telephone monopolies once had monopoly capital to use for long range and very speculative research -- but THOSE days already are gone. Which has a bit of poetry, perhaps -- the seeds sown by Bell Labs perhaps ultimately led to its destruction (not that I know Bell's role, if any, in VoIP or 802.11 or P2P). - Charles (not in any way affiliated with skype or any teleco etc.; and I do own some BKHM)

To: Keith Fauci who wrote (295)	11/7/2003 7:25:05 PM
From: tech101	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 376

Long Haul Has a Pulse The long-haul components market is finally showing some life, as Avanex Corp. (Nasdaq: AVNX - message board) and JDS Uniphase Corp. (Nasdaq: JDSU - message board; Toronto: JDU) are saying the sector contributed some unexpected revenues last quarter. Whether this marks a turnaround for long haul is hard to say. The surprise gains last quarter appear to be the result of inventory depletions, equipment vendors finally using up the masses of components they bought during the bubble. For that reason, JDSU officials weren't ready to say long-haul is back for good. "We're getting some ordering of new long-haul products, but it's very discontinuous, customer-to-customer," JDSU CFO Ronald Foster said during his company's recent earnings call. "I don't believe we are seeing the full demand flowing through to us yet, because of inventory still out there." Avanex CEO Walter Alessandrini is a bit more assertive: "In general, everybody believes long-haul should have signs of growth, maybe moderate growth, next quarter." The truth might be closer to JDSU's side, because it's unclear what the inventory situation is out there. "We've been operating on the assumption that the equipment people should have sorted out their inventory more or less," says Tom Hausken, analyst with Strategies Unlimited. But one question is whether the component vendors still have inventory stashes, he says; depending on that answer, inventories might continue to keep long-haul revenues down. Still, long-haul is showing some signs of life. JDSU CEO Kevin Kennedy told analysts some portions of long-haul networks really are filling up, albeit on a spotty basis, thus creating new demand. "We did see some pickup, on a select case-by-case basis, in a few spots where we didn't anticipate," he said. Separately, projects such as Japan's fiber-to-the-home buildouts are contributing small bits of new demand for long haul. "There's a segment here and a segment there, and it adds up. Even these onesie-twosie builds add up to something," Hausken says. Amplifiers are actually doing well with the FTTH projects in Japan. "It's turned out to be quite a good business for those guys," Hausken says. "One guy told me he sees two to three times more business in amplifiers than they did at the 'coldest part of the winter.' I'm taking that to mean the first or second quarter of this year." Hausken didn't share forecasts for long-haul components specifically, but he says it's feasible the segment could grow in 2004, based on the fact that long-haul equipment sales are expected to grow. He cited some DWDM figures from sister research firm KMI Research that state that market should increase to $3.1 billion in 2004 from $2.75 billion this year. For another perspective, check out Bandwidth Price Revolution, in the latest issue of Light Reading Insider, Light Reading's paid subscription research service (see Report: Bandwidth Glut to End in 2005 ).