Like it or not, you'd better get ready. The election will probably turn on the economy.
“The odds ... do increasingly favor a revival in job creation,” Greenspan said.
U.S. economy keeps adding jobs
ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON, Nov. 7 — The nation’s unemployment rate dropped to 6 percent in October as companies added thousands of new jobs for the third straight month, new evidence of an improving labor market.
How do you view the U.S. jobs market?
* 8437 responses
Going gangbusters
5%
Getting better by the day
46%
Stuck in neutral
14%
Not so hot
21%
Cold as ice
14%
Survey results tallied every 60 seconds. Live Votes reflect respondents' views and are not scientifically valid surveys.
THE LABOR DEPARTMENT reported Friday that payrolls grew by 126,000 last month, significantly more than the 50,000 new jobs that economists had predicted. That followed a revised 125,000 new jobs in September, which initially was reported at 57,000.
U.S. companies also added new jobs in August, marking three months of hiring gains following a sixth-month slump. October hiring occurred across a broad swath of the business landscape, including technical services, temporary employment firms, health care, social work, education and retail.
“We can finally put the nail in the coffin of the jobless recovery,” said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. “We are back on a rising job track.”
BY THE NUMBERS
Key economic indicators
Period Latest Prev.
• Consumer Confidence Oct.* 81.1 77.0
• Retail sales Sept* -0.2% 1.2%
• GDP Q2 3.3% 1.4%
• ISM Index Oct.* 57.0 53.7
• Factory Orders Aug* -0.8% 2.0%
• Unemployment Rate Sept 6.1% 6.1%
• Employment situation Sept* 57,000 -41,000
• Consumer inflation Sept 1.2% 1.3%
• Housing starts Sept* 1,888,000 1,826,000
• Home sales Sept* 7,835,000 7,607,000
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Recent figures
Oct.* 81.1
Sept. 77.0
Aug 81.7
July 77.0
June 83.5
May 83.6
April 81.0
March 61.4
Feb 64.8
Jan 03 78.8
Dec 80.7
Nov 84.9
What is it?
Consumer confidence is considered important because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The monthly Conference Board survey is one of the two most closely watched indicators of sentiment. Based on a mail-in survey sent to about 5,000 households. Results are converted to an index and expressed in comparison to the 1985 average of 100.
Source: The Conference Board
RETAIL SALES
Recent figures
Sept* -0.2%
Aug 1.2%
July 1.4%
June 0.9%
May 0.5%
April -0.3%
March 2.3%
Feb -1.4%
Jan 03 0.4%
Dec 1.4%
Nov 0.8%
Oct 0.1%
What is it?
A broad measure of consumer spending trends. Includes sales of motor vehicles, clothing, food at both grocery stores and restaurants, electronics, building materials drugs and other items. Expressed as a percent change from previous month, adjusted for seasonal variations but not price changes.
Source: Census Bureau
GDP
Recent figures
Q2 3.3%
Q1 2003 1.4%
Q4 1.4%
Q3 4.0%
Q2 1.3%
Q1 2002 5.0%
Q4 2.7%
Q3 -0.3%
Q2 -1.6%
Q1 2001 -0.6%
Q4 1.1%
Q3 0.6%
What is it?
The gross domestic product is the broadest measure of the economy, comprising the value of all goods and services produced in the United States. It is reported quarterly with frequent revisions. Generally expressed as a percentage change from the previous quarter in “real” or inflation-adjusted terms. Economists presume real GDP is capable of growing at an annual rate of about 3.5 percent over the long term. When GDP declines over a sustained period of time the economy is considered to be in recession.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
ISM INDEX
Recent figures
Oct.* 57.0
Sept. 53.7
Aug 54.7
July 51.8
June 49.8
May 49.4
April 45.4
March 46.2
Feb 50.5
Jan 03 53.9
Dec 55.2
Nov 50.5
What is it?
The first major indicator reported each month, considered a reliable assessment of how the manufacturing sector is performing. Based on a survey of executives done by the Institute for Supply Management, formerly known as the National Association of Purchasing Management. Responses are compiled and reported as an index number. A reading above 50 percent indicates the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates it is shrinking.
Source: Institute for Supply Management
FACTORY ORDERS
Recent figures
Aug* -0.8%
July 2.0%
June 1.9%
May 0.3%
April -2.6%
March 1.5%
Feb -0.5%
Jan 03 1.6%
Dec 0.3%
Nov -0.7%
Oct 1.9%
Sep -3.1%
What is it?
Data on new orders for manufactured goods, adjusted for seasonal variation, offer a good indicator of the manufacturing sector's health, closely watched because it is the most volatile part of the economy. Expressed as percent change from previous month.
Source: Census Bureau.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Recent figures
Sept 6.1%
Aug 6.1%
July 6.2%
June 6.4%
May 6.1%
April 6.0%
March 5.8%
Feb 5.8%
Jan 03 5.7%
Dec 6.0%
Nov 5.9%
Oct 5.8%
What is it?
One of the best known and most politically powerful economic indicators, the rate is calculated from a monthly survey among a sample of about 60,000 households. The rate is adjusted for seasonal variations, but unlike most economic statistics it is never revised.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
EMPLOYMENT SITUATION
Recent figures
Sept* 57,000
Aug -41,000
July -57,000
June -83,000
May -76,000
April -22,000
March -151,000
Feb -121,000
Jan 03 158,000
Dec -211,000
Nov 1,000
Oct 119,000
What is it?
Represents the month-to-month change in jobs on payrolls of the nation’s business, government and non-profit establishments. Generally considered a more accurate indicator of labor market health than the unemployment rate. Analysts estimate the economy should add about 150,000 jobs monthly to keep up with the nation’s growing work force. Based on a sample of 300,000 establishments employing nearly a third of the nation’s workers, the figure is adjusted for seasonal variations and frequently revised.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CONSUMER INFLATION
Recent figures
Sept 1.2%
Aug 1.3%
July 1.5%
June 1.5%
May 1.6%
April 1.5%
March 1.7%
Feb 1.7%
Jan 03 1.9%
Dec 1.9%
Nov 2.0%
Oct 2.2%
What is it?
The most widely known and used measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index is based on the price of a “basket” of goods including food, beverages, fuel, medical care and clothing. Value refers to year-over-year change in "core" prices, excluding volatile food and energy categories.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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HOUSING STARTS
(seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Recent figures
Sept* 1,888,000
Aug 1,826,000
July 1,890,000
June 1,844,000
May 1,745,000
April 1,627,000
March 1,742,000
Feb 1,640,000
Jan 03 1,828,000
Dec 1,815,000
Nov 1,760,000
Oct 1,653,000
What is it?
A good indicator to assess demand for housing and construction industry health. Represents the number of new residential buildings, including single-family and multifamily homes, where construction was started. Expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Construction was started on 1.7 million new residential structures in 2002, the highest level since 1986.
Source: Census Bureau.
HOME SALES
(seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Recent figures
Sept* 7,835,000
Aug 7,607,000
July 7,264,000
June 7,030,000
May 6,931,000
April 6,854,000
March 6,538,000
Feb 6,795,000
Jan 03 7,029,000
Dec 6,973,000
Nov 6,662,000
Oct 6,771,000
What is it?
One of the bright spots of the economy in recent years, driven at least in part by historically low mortgage rates. Figure represents the sum of new and existing single-family home sales, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. In 2002, a record 6.5 million homes were sold.
Sources: National Association of Realtors, Census Bureau
* preliminary figures
But the hard-hit manufacturing sector actually shed jobs in October - 24,000 - and it was the 37th consecutive month of declines in that area. The pace of job loss, however, has slowed considerably.
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The overall civilian unemployment rate improved from the standstill 6.1 percent level of the last three months.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan struck an optimistic tone about the employment outlook in a Thursday speech to the Securities Industry Association, saying hiring was expected to rebound.
“The odds ... do increasingly favor a revival in job creation,” Greenspan said.
The jobs market has been the weak link in the robust recovery, with the economy growing at a sizzling 7.2 percent in the third quarter. Economists now believe the worst days are over, with significant hiring now occurring.
• Is 40-hours dead?
• Tethered by a high-tech leash
• Overworked and suing
• The dark side of productivity
• Laid back in Europe
• You get paid for what?
• Burnout!
• Generation gaps in the workplace
• Is 40-hours dead?
• Tethered by a high-tech leash
• Overworked and suing
• The dark side of productivity
• Laid back in Europe
• You get paid for what?
• Burnout!
• Generation gaps in the workplace
The improvement could benefit President Bush, who will be up for re-election next November. Democrats had hoped to use the lack of new jobs as a political issue to win back the White House, and indeed the election is still a year away.
Bush to sell economic plan in N.C.
“The most likely scenario is, we’ll get enough jobs so it won’t be the issue Democrats need to oust the president,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.
The service sector added 143,000 new jobs last month, the largest increase in nine months. That included a 33,000 gain in temporary employment services, which have added jobs for the last five months.
Economists say that shows companies still remain a bit hesitant about the strength of the recovery and are waiting to take on the increased costs of hiring new workers.
“In the short run, they are hiring temporary workers,” Mayland said. “It is creating a pent-up demand for hiring. I think the rebound is sustainable and as we build up a track record,” more hiring will follow.
Mayland said the positive employment picture is great news for the holiday season. Consumer confidence should spike, making shoppers more willing to open their wallets. That will help reduce business inventory and lead to new jobs.
Still, the gloom isn’t over for all American workers. About 8.8 million remained unemployed last month, with about 2 million without jobs for 27 weeks or more.
Jobs in the airlines industry also continued to decline last month. Since reaching an employment peak in March 2001, the industry has lost more than 20 percent of its jobs.
Hiring in grocery stores got a boost as companies prepared for strikes in Southern California and elsewhere. About 13,000 new jobs were added last month.
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