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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (41111)	11/7/2003 3:43:01 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

ACF, I wasn't saying I think China will do 20% growth per year for 20 years. I was just thinking what's possible. 10% is easy enough. I was wondering what an upper bound would be. 20% savings is easy enough these days. The essentials of life are few and savings are investments. When we had no children, we could easily save all of one of our incomes while having an enjoyable life. China's population is stable now. Children are few. Savings can be huge. But borrowing turbo-charges investment. China can borrow huge amounts as well as accept overseas investment by companies like QUALCOMM. Savings, plus investment, plus borrowing can equal 20% returns every year, no sweat. My guess is that growth will actually only be around 15% per year and usually 10%. I was just thinking what would be the maximum doable if all political conditions were kept good. Uncle Al won't be leaving interest rates at 1% for long. If China can grow at even 10% and opens up their economic system, then they can suck in mountains of money and provide a great return on investment. 1% implies there isn't much that's useful to do which will give a return on money borrowed. That's only true if the capital is constrained. The Biotelecosmictechdot.com bust is over. It's nearly 2004, the Y2K bust was nearly 4 years ago. Markets have cleared, people have been redeployed, there was no deflationary implosion. There was barely a recession. International trade continues apace. It all looks good. China and India [not to mention a lot of others] need a lot of capital and there are great returns on investment possible if money is only 1%. My little Tonka Truckload of cash has been getting very bored waiting for some fun. Uncle Al will be having to stomp on irrational exuberance and inflationary trends soon enough. 1% is simply not enough support for a currency. His job is to protect the currency. Which means he'll soon be putting rates up - as fast as they can while maintaining some semblance of dignity. They were very slow to start slashing rates and they have been too slow increasing them. I know there is plenty of work ethic in the USA still. But the amount of money spent by governments on all sorts of wastefulness is huge across the entitled OECD. In NZ, the government spends over half the money and that ignores all the time we all spend enmeshed in government demands. The burgeoning social welfare disaster is huge. Something like 20% of families are welfare dependent in NZ. nzherald.co.nz Even in NZ's ugly economic and political conditions, we have good growth and the government has a huge surplus. If I ruled the world, we'd have 20% global growth every year, easy peasy! Mqurice

To: AC Flyer who wrote (41111)	11/7/2003 5:48:47 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 74559

I see you are very active. kind of like revisionists desperately seeking permanent change to the story line. I suppose if "you" say it enough, you will believe it.

To: AC Flyer who wrote (41111)	11/7/2003 5:54:07 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

AC/MQ you're both a little bit guilty of exagerating. Put the ball back on the grass. We can kick it if it up on the air, Please. I don't mean any of you are wrong. It appears you're getting carried away.