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To: ild who wrote (266367)	11/7/2003 3:36:53 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Date: Fri Nov 07 2003 14:16 trotsky (Sherlock) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i would agree with you that it's decidedly NOT a market for investors. nimble traders, yes, but long term investors should stay away from this incredibly pricey and no doubt dangerous market. my observations in any case should be regarded as a warning to overzealous bears rather than a recommendation to buy high beta tech stocks. all i'm saying is that the things that need to be aligned to produce a major decline are not aligned yet - but that doesn't mean that such a decline is impossible, it only means it is a low probability event for now. note though that things are apt to change very quickly these days. my guess would be that there will be little warning before the reversal begins - and we have in fact the first portents of an approaching top, like e.g. the recent near record inflows into mutual funds or the blow-off like spikes in junk and emerging market debt instruments. so one has to tread very carefully. however, i still believe that the bears need to capitulate. we should for instance see a big outflow from Rydex bear funds as one of the signals that this is happening. i don't know when, but it has to be soon...after all, the shorts can only take so much pain before they give in. since you mention early 2000, this was also a period marked by previous shorts getting forced to cover at a huge loss, and then even change their positioning and go long. e.g. Soros' Quantum fund was at the time rumored to have been a big short in the internet sector that completely abandoned that position and went long - driving prices to their final spike highs.