Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Western Digital (WDC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (10837)	11/7/2003 6:07:11 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 11057

Yes, Michael. The FD thread does not have a monopoly on the truth, although I prefer the shorthand of revealed preference to more long winded theories. Unfortunately (for conversation's sake), this thread is almost defunct, a sure sign that we are probably closer to a bottom than a top.

To: michael97123 who wrote (10837)	11/7/2003 8:10:03 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 11057

Sam and Michael, No claim here to revealed truth. But here's my interpretation of why HDD'd got whacked today. The GS analyst cited the statement from the Seagate CC where someone said that this year might not exhibit the pronounced seasonality of prior years. So the GS analyst extrapolated that to mean that drive makers will over-produce drives (thinking they have strong seasonal demand), and then be stuck with excess drives in Q1, which will drive prices down, and then destroy the industry again. Personally I think that concern is always present. And it can be managed by the companies avoiding excess production. So far they have been doing it for 2 years. And now that the Japanese and Koreans have abandoned the desktop market, my expectation is that this will not be an immediate problem. Sarmad