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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Adams who wrote (41132)	11/7/2003 7:22:08 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

<<I thought the drought in Brazil>> The drought just tested the assumptions. The planners, not to admit that they've goofed badly, told: "Yes, we've been caught by the drought."

To: Mark Adams who wrote (41132)	11/7/2003 7:31:36 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<<demand for electricity is one thing we can measure pretty accurately.>> We need to go more in detail. Brazil de-regulated and privatized its energy sector miserably. It privatized the distribution quickly because the government was bankrupt and needed cash fast. Remember they could no longer print money once the financial carrousel of the hyper-inflationary times ended. They didn’t privatized transmission and generation. Players, generation, transmission and non-privatized distribution were afraid of market forces and letting the system crash was good for them to show and tell: "See? Privatization and de-regulation is bad!" "During the state-owned times there were no blackouts" But that hides poor planning. Years of underinvestment, since they didn’t have the money to upgrade, noting that the debt crisis didn't permit investing in the plant.