Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: philv who wrote (19543)	11/8/2003 10:52:47 AM
From: philv	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 81164

No end to articles warning about the debt crises. Every few days you can read a new one, fully reshearched, together with graphs, supporting studies, quotes from the famous etc. It all sounds so plausible, and the outcome so obvious. Yet, none of this gets past the internet, none of this registers with those in high places. So, one has to question the value of any of this. Personally, my eyes are beginning to glaze over, the warnings of disaster from previous articles still echo in my ears. But the world is still functioning, the party goes on and on and on, and we are re-assured from the highest sources that there is no end, that everything is just peachy. But then my sense is our standard of living is propped up by debt, that we are living high on the hog on somebody else's tab. I know it is wrong to saddle the next generation with our excesses. But, who am I to question the wisdom of debt when it is hailed and exalted by the highest in the land? Like a drug addict, I continue to read, sometimes only scan the articles because they begin to sound the same. "The reckless financial policies of leading western powers in the last two decades make it likely that the next seismic debt crisis will be in America, not Argentina. It can be avoided, says Ann Pettifor of the Real World Economic Outlook, only by serious efforts to bring regulation and balance to the international economy." This from: opendemocracy.net Then there is this: "“America’s Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out From Under Us”" (Warren Buffet) from:http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/fox/102803.html I better stop here. There's lots more like the above. Wolf, Wolf, wolf, wol, w

To: philv who wrote (19543)	11/8/2003 4:40:47 PM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81164

Phil > Part 1 .............. It has occurred to me that total world consumption has probably not increased that much, and by simply switching production from say the US to China doesn't increase the total demand I'm sure that's true. In fact, in what is supposed to be a depressed world economy, how can it be otherwise? > the Chinese are stockpiling the raw materials As an alternative to holding US paper dollars? > the Chinese are stockpiling the finished product Could be but that is a very tricky policy because, by over-producing, they are creating deflation and forcing down the price of their manufactured goods. > there has been an increase in demand, unseen by the rest of the world, internally in China & S.E Maybe? > I think the US is committed to low interest rates for years to come. I don't know about that. Strikes me that they are already preparing the US public for a rise in rates. Makes sense in terms of my "strong dollar" hypothesis because then they can print more and buy more, ad infinitum. In fact, the whole game is to print as much as possible and then to suppress every hint of inflation. That's why they dare not allow the gold price to get out of hand because a low gold price signifies low inflation and that means a strong paper dollar. > This will produce bubbles in real estate, banking, stock markets and other large capital activities That's why it's necessary to put up interest rates. The whole game is fictional except to those who are being squeezed dry by having to pay more interest on their mortgages, credit cards, cars etc. And, it's that squeezing, and the crying which follows, which convinces foreign investors that the dollar is "real" and not just the product of a paper-mill. As I say frequently, an indirect aspect of the whole game is social control. People who are in debt and struggling to make ends meet don't give trouble, don't make revolutions and do as they are told. They also believe anything their government tells them. In fact, it is probably their debt, rather than any other reason, which makes the average American gullible and ready to believe the nonsense put out by their government, something which non-Americans find very hard to understand. Part 2 to follow

To: philv who wrote (19543)	11/9/2003 10:29:26 AM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81164

Phil > I haven't got a clue about gold. Here is all you need to know. ads.wnd.com

To: philv who wrote (19543)	11/10/2003 5:43:02 PM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81164

Phil > I haven't got a clue about gold.(2) Looks very much like it's preparing for another attack on Hill 390. Perhaps this time, with all the bad news from Eyerak, it might make it. stockcharts.com[l,a]dalaynay[de][pd50,2][ilb14!la12,26,9]

To: philv who wrote (19543)	11/12/2003 1:06:23 PM
From: IngotWeTrust	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81164

PhilV...may I offer my "2 DWT" worth on one statement you made in your post of Sat 11/8: You wrote: <font color=slateblue>" A couple of billion people, slightly increasing their standards of living and consumption may well have a huge impact on the supply of commodities. But I have not seen that addressed in any article directly."</font> I submit that indeed such articles have been written and promulgated, not just recently but for years by forecasting pundits. One of the more interesting of recent vintage was penned by the now dismissed seer of the World Gold Council, Rhona O'Connell. It is still on WGCs website, to the best of my knowledge, in PDF form. WGC has a most EXCELLENT search engine. I respectfully suggest you type in Rhona OConnell and China and see what pops up. I personally think you succintly and spot on nutshelled it in your 2 doz word sentence: <font color=slateblue> *A couple of billion people, slightly increasing their standards of living and consumption may well have a huge impact on the supply of commodities.* </font> Regards gold_tutor, platinum_tutor, catalytic converter_tutor<grin> mailto:origppress@aol.com if you can't find it...I believe I've saved it on ZIP drive around here somewhere...

To: philv who wrote (19543)	11/19/2003 5:19:15 PM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81164

Phil > I still think the US dollar will fall because of all the liquidity. I haven't got a clue about gold. Scratching up an old discussion of ours, I thought you might find this chart interesting. It's the Gold price v the Euro ( = gold price in Euros) which shows clearly that the gold price in Euros is actually going down. (Join the tops and the bottoms with a ruler). The inference is that the better hedge against falls in the USD would be the Euro rather than gold. stockcharts.com[l,a]dalaynay[de][pd50,2][ilb14!la12,26,9]