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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (1980)	11/8/2003 11:36:10 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

commitmentsoftraders.com Russ, On those COTs it is important to discuss exactly what is a "large spec" a "small spec" and a "commercial hedger" This is my understanding. 1) A large spec is a mutual fund or hedge fund or the like 2) A small spec is someone like you or I 3) Commercials are the gold producers themselves Let's discuss #3. How does even an "unhedged miner" sell its gold or silver. Would you think it is via futures or some other mechanism. If they are selling just a couple months forward as opposed to years like Barrick wouldn't you nearly always expect to see the "commercials" short? Is selling forward 3 months considered hedging? 2 months? 1 month? How do they sell this metal if not thru futures. Is the definition of hedging vs unhedged pertain to the amount sold that is not yet mined? If that is the definition (and I think it is) even a 6 month sale would not change NEM or GG or whoever's definition as an "unheged miner". Now exactly how are they selling this gold if by other than futures. This would tend to always make the "commercials" short (in aggregate) would it not. Now let's turn to the "Large Specs". If the large specs are indeed the MUFUs and Hedge Funds or whatever, why shouldn't the small specs align themselves with what the big boys are doing? Those "large specs" are providing price support IMO. So is there really an "issue" at all with COTs on gold and silver? Yes those big boys will bail if it suits them and someone is prone to "run stops" periodically shaking out the small specs or whatever, but the market keeps coming back. As long as the US$ is headed down, and trade deficits stay high, and threat of terrorism is persistant, etc I do not see gold collapsing, nor do I see quality miners like NEM GG HMY etc collapsing either. That does not mean they can't but if they do it should be a buying opportunity not a selling one. Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (1980)	11/8/2003 1:12:23 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke At the Global Economic and Investment Outlook Conference, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania November 6, 2003 The Jobless Recovery federalreserve.gov

To: russwinter who wrote (1980)	11/8/2003 3:57:50 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

excellent post. we cannot of course know the exact relative contributions of various and sundry forces moving the price of thse metals, but your seem to capture the dilemma of an investor. What of the increased ability and desire of small parties around the globe to simply want to own something more stable: Chinese are big savers as are Japanese, and both of them must know better every day that their paper is just that, paper.

To: russwinter who wrote (1980)	11/8/2003 7:16:54 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Hello russwinter, <<Is gold a liquidity investment (commodity) or does it have "special" powers of the kind you've laid out?>> On gold’s relationship with money, I think money is: Message 16152511 July 31st, 2001 … Money is like water ... it flows, pools, rises, boils, evaporates, bursts, floods, and freezes. Humans try to dam it, guide it, use it, for good and evil; I think gold is also like water, in that it undergoes phase change at different price points: Commodity at USD 250/oz Insurance at USD 300/oz Money at USD 350/oz Hedge at USD 400/oz Call option at USD 450/oz Desired at USD 500/oz Sought after at USD 550/oz Wonderful at USD 800/oz Fantastic at USD 1,000/oz Must have at USD 1,200/oz Wet dream at USD 1,500/oz Dangerous at USD 1,800/oz Sell at USD 2,000/oz All over at USD 2,500/oz As good as dead at USD 3,000/oz Short at USD 5,000/oz Chugs, Jay

To: russwinter who wrote (1980)	11/9/2003 8:21:39 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

"Although I can not prove my following statement, it would appear that, as months and years now go by, that gold is becoming more of a "currency", more of a monetary instrument antithetical to the USD and other fiat currencies, rather than just a "commodity". This transition, a basic change in its perception by the market, is by definition quite gradual, and can seen most clearly by the reminder that straight fundamental analysis of supply/demand characteristics no longer are that valuable in forecasting this market. The gold market price is being set, more and more, by the speculative/investment crowd, rather than the actual producers and consumers of this commodity. Gold now moves more and more in line with other financial price movements, negatively correlated to the USD, and less in line with its inherent fundamentals. This perceptional change is critical to support the ongoing bull market, as ground floor investment interest must emerge, in size, to offset the deteriorating basic fundamentals of this market." safehaven.com