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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: PuddleGlum who wrote (48791)11/10/2003 2:11:22 AM
From: Lazarus_Long  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57110
 
research.stlouisfed.org
research.stlouisfed.org
research.stlouisfed.org
research.stlouisfed.org

I recall it the way you do. AG either panicked because of Y2K or used it as an excuse to pump out money, then after 1/1/2000 came and went he hit the brakes. This may be what shows it:
research.stlouisfed.org



To: PuddleGlum who wrote (48791)11/11/2003 12:25:49 PM
From: MulhollandDrive  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57110
 
hi pg,

i found this one going back even further...it shows the MZM peaking at the end of 2001, as you can see the decline (with just a slight consolidation in 2003) is quite stark...

martincapital.com

so while MZM was ratcheting up significantly, the market was declining , (remember the talk at the time of the fed "pushing on a string'?) compare the increasing MZM with the corresponding move of the stock market and let me know what you think..

(interestingly to me the peak of the MZM seems to mark the bottom of the NAZ)

martincapital.com

ps..

when i asked "by what vehicle" would the selloff be precipitated...i thought for sure you would say the same helicopter that dropped all that MZM on the investing hordes in the first place.

:)



To: PuddleGlum who wrote (48791)11/11/2003 1:04:09 PM
From: zonder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57110
 
You are probably thinking of the chart of Fed credit growth. It increases fairly steadily up until the last few months of 1999, whereupon it SKYROCKETS - increases by about USD 100 bn to almost USD 650 bn, whereupon it falls right back in a couple of months.

Juxtaposing this with the market performance, there is an eerie parallel.

Basically what happened was that the Fed created a credit bulge ahead of Y2K that went to the stock markets. That is why the money does not show in M1 or MZM or any other cash item. It wouldn't create a stock market bubble if it did, after all.

Here is an interesting read:
iht.com

What worries Ms. Ghosh about the United States is a whopping increase in outstanding credit, notably money borrowed against the value of stock portfolios. The Federal Reserve Board, she said, ''has created an unstable credit boom.''

''The question is how much of this surge in credit growth is driven by Y2K,'' she added. ''We could see an unwinding in January, but we don't think so.''

MS. GHOSH said that with Y2K out of the way, she expected the Fed to swiftly remove the liquidity from the financial system that it had allowed to build up out of Y2K-related fears.

Little of the money that was added to the system last year has shown up in the most basic measure of money supply, M1, representing cash and instruments that can be easily concerted into cash, she noted.

If you want to know where that money ended up, just look at the Nasdaq.

''M1 is stable, so the money that is being borrowed is going somewhere else, like the stock market,'' she said. ''The link is pretty clear.''