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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (15657)	11/9/2003 6:50:16 AM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 793624

Yes, it's a good article but the insurgents' strategy and tactics are forced on them by time constraints and by psychology. If the US does get too many ducks in a row the insurgents are doomed. Specifically, if Iraq police and security are well implanted by the US, not an impossibility, then the insurgents will find their moves pre-empted. It's not that I think the new security guys will be that good but rather because they will be well motivated. I read several times the article posted here by Rollcast Message 19475823 about shame based societies. And did some internet noodling. The basic view in the article is sound. It applies to the earlier Anglo Saxon societies almost exactly as Gutman describes for the Middle East. Shame subtracts from honour. Honour may be recovered by inflicting shame. (Motivation of revenge and source of the vendetta). The regained honour is even further strenghtened if the shame is inflicted through socially established means. God knows an awful lot of Iraqis were dishonored by the Baathists - they know who murdered their families and friends and stole their property. And they know those same people want to come back and do it some more. If Bremer has any vague competence he can get himself along side most Iraqis on this issue and he sure as hell doesn't have to do it for them (and he shouldn't - it's shame full to take responsibility from people). In the South ex-Baathist functionaries are being picked off informally. It's not a big deal, yet, but it's a growing trend - the Southerners aren't going to let those who desecrated their honour walk around, so if the police don't pick them up and real trials don't start soon, the trend will accelerate. In Friday's NY Times there was an article noting that in Baghdad courts alone there are 50,000 actions against former Baathists for murder, kidnapping and confiscation of property! nytimes.com I can only gather from this there must be a huge number of Iraqis willing to join the police and army to hunt down Baathists. (A corrolary is that there are also a huge number of Iraqis yearning for equitably enforced law that extends the length and breadth of the country). I suspect, but can't prove it, that majority of Iraqis would rather work out of guilt-based than shame-based activity - the number of assasinated Baathists is remarkably low. In connection with this most influential Shiite leaders are rather "protestant" in their teaching. They seem to have a message similar to this: Your deeds make you known to God, to others, and to yourself. And they tend to be politically quietist. Unlike the Iranian bunch they don't appear particularly Cromwellian. We'll see. If I were the US guys in charge I'd put huge resources into training police and army and with a great emphasis on sound doctrine. I'd train lots and lots of them,infest the Sunni triangle and give no quarter.