To: LindyBill who wrote (15725 ) 11/9/2003 8:49:21 PM From: KLP Respond to of 793670 While looking at the WSJ online Oct 20 re "factory employment falling worldwide: Found this: False Promises on Trade Much note is taken of a commercial running in Iowa these days. A couple, Olin and Barb Clayton, describing themselves a "longtime" Gephardt supporters, recount their plight as workers wedded to America's "declining" manufacturing sector. Their tale is about jobs lost, wages falling, a family uprooting itself to chase new opportunities, none of which seem to last. "After NAFTA, I lost two good jobs, they closed the plants and the jobs went to Mexico," Mr. Clayton tells the camera. It's a tough story, but then trying to cling by your fingernails to a sector of the economy being radically reshaped by technology and trade is bound to be a tough situation. Would it be tactless to ask, however, exactly what their support of Mr. Gephardt over the decades has gained people like the Claytons? He fruitlessly opposed Nafta, trade with China, the World Trade Organization, and various trade expanding initiatives by Republican and Democratic administrations alike. His last presidential race, in 1988, saw him swaddling himself in the protectionist banner, proving once again that protectionism (and the economic pessimism that underlies it) just won't get you very far in traditionally optimistic, forward-looking America. All these defeats make a nice litany of losing battles that he can proudly hail at his meetings with Big Labor. But it's a distinctly minority niche Mr. Gephardt is trying to fill, a voice for those Americans who don't want to go forward. Manufacturing has been shrinking as a share of total employment for 40 years, and also as a share of total output. The first effect is called productivity, the second is the hallmark of any advanced society: More of what we consume is the product of the service sector and brainware, less the product of grunt labor. It's too easy, as Mr. Gephardt does, to paint foreigners as the villain. A new study reported in today's Journal points out that even China lost 15% of its manufacturing jobs between 1995 and 2002 as global competition forced redeployment from inefficient state-owned factories to nimbler private ones. All over the planet, competition is forcing companies to become more efficient, with incalculable benefits for consumers. The angst felt by people whose skills are no longer in demand is real and wrenching. But Mr. Gephardt's own career is testament to the limited political upside to a strategy of propounding a false solution of turning back technological and economic change. The Democratic Party's arch-protectionist has not been able to stop these tides. And the Claytons, assuming they weren't sent over by central casting, would not really care for the result if he did. -- Holman W. Jenkins Jr.opinionjournal.com