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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JCS who wrote (26993)	11/10/2003 8:01:04 AM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 206085

JCS, I don't view investing based on a prediction that there is no way to tell what the winter weather will hold as being anything close to playing russian roulette, and I'm not being facetious, or even optimistic for that matter. The bottom line to me is that investing has risks, there is no way to get around that. Investing in E&P companies in the winter has even more risks than it used to, due to the lesser amount of natgas being consumed by users that do not vary their consumption based on the weather. But the above having been said, I believe folks over-emphasize weather here as a factor affecting investing results in E&P stocks, especially the microcaps and small caps. Drilling results are much more important than weather on these, and as long as we do not have extremely warm weather in the winter those companies that experience good drilling results will do famously. We now have no expectations of there being a likelihood of there being an extremely warm winter. If there is a warm winter, it would not be the end of the world for companies that are increasing production at low finding & development costs. Thus to invest based on the knowledge that we have an equal chance of their being a warm or cold winter is not playing russian roulette. Last year at this time the weather forecasts were predicting a warmer than normal winter. However, due to a colder than normal November, they were in the midst of being adjusted. I would agree that folks who invested in E&P stocks prior to November '02 were playing russian roulette, because the forecasts were for a warm winter. This time its different <g>.