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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ish who wrote (15813)	11/10/2003 8:35:14 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 793684

Door may be open for Hil By MICHAEL R. BLOOD DAILY NEWS POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT Sunday, November 9th, 2003 With none of the Democratic presidential wanna-bes rising out of the teens in national polls, some political experts are theorizing that it could happen - Sen. Hillary Clinton gets into the race. "If nobody ... solidifies a position by mid-March, I think you are going to find a real surge and opportunity for someone like Hillary," said Donald Robinson, a professor of government at Smith College. "It presents, maybe for the first time since 1952, [the chance] of a candidate coming from outside the pack," Robinson added. "As long as Hillary is around, she is always going to be the Cinderella candidate, whether it's now or four months from now," said Democratic consultant Norman Adler. Clinton has said she will not be a candidate in 2004, but it hasn't been missed that she trounces the Democratic candidates in national polls. The senator may be prodded to get into it by concern that former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean could win the nomination. Although Dean leads the pack with only 17%, his prospects were bolstered last week when two of the country's largest unions indicated that he was their man. Sources close to the New York senator and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, have made it clear that they think the dovish Dean would be ruinous for the Democratic Party. Those concerns were factors in Bill Clinton's behind-the-scenes urging of retired Gen. Wesley Clark to throw his hat in. But Clark has yet to take command of the race. The Democratic primary calendar was shuffled after the last election to select a nominee early and give the candidate plenty of time to raise cash for the fight with Bush. Instead, the change is threatening to leave Democrats without a clear-cut front-runner and the nominee, presumably determined by mid-March, could be someone largely unknown to many voters. One Democratic nightmare is that Rep. Dick Gephardt wins Iowa, Dean takes New Hampshire and Sen. John Edwards tops the pack in South Carolina. No one drops out and no one catches fire. By some accounts, it's possible Democrats could go to their July convention without a certain nominee for the first time in decades. The possibility of an unsettled convention is not an idle matter among some Democrats. "If we get 38% percent on the first ballot, who do we go to" to get the other 12%? asked one strategist whose campaign is tracking rivals' delegates in case they need to be picked off at the convention. The notion of a last-minute Clinton candidacy would depend on her being able to quickly change her public stance and mobilize support. It's clear that Clinton isn't getting into the early primaries. The deadline for candidates to get on the primary ballot in Missouri - a key swing state - is just nine days away. The deadline in New Hampshire, which holds the nation's first primary on Jan. 27, is Nov. 21. Others quickly follow. The strategy of skipping those contests would defy the accepted wisdom of presidential politics that the nominee must get in early and win knockouts in first-round primaries like Iowa and New Hampshire. "She's too late for Iowa and probably too late for New Hampshire. But of course she's Hillary and might not need Iowa and New Hampshire," Adler said. "No one but her could go from a standing start in Iowa to winning," said GOP strategist Rick Wilson. "It's not impossible but neither is it easy." nydailynews.com