Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (2033)	11/11/2003 12:03:10 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Is the real estate top in? A post on my board on the FOOL I don't know if we are near (or at) a top or not, but a sure indicator just showed up in my morning newspaper - A full-page advertisement from Robert G. Allen about how he wants to create at least 1000 millionaires by teaching them his techniques for investing in real estate. If I am not mistaken, this is the same guy that was around in the late 70's and the 80's, I even purchased one or two of his books ("Nothing Down" and some other one) back then. The most surprising thing to me is that he isn't in prison, well maybe he just got out :-) Full page in section A ... that must cost a lot, this is in the South Florida Sun Sentinel with relatively wide circulation !

To: russwinter who wrote (2033)	11/11/2003 12:08:25 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, what do you think about coming X-mas sales? Wall Street expects blockbuster sales. Holiday Shopping Is Expected To Justify Retail-Stock Rally ... "Since the blowout holiday season of 1999, retailers have been dogged by recession, terrorism and war -- a business environment, frankly, that only the Grinch could appreciate," Mr. Steidtmann wrote in a recent report on holiday spending. All this begs the question: Are consumers going to return to the shop-till-they-drop mentality that helped elevate retail stock prices higher this year? With some retailers snagging 25% to 40% of their annual sales during the holiday season, the issue is pressing. ... The National Retail Federation, the world's biggest retail-trade association, said it expects holiday sales to rise 5.7% percent this year to $217.4 billion, the biggest increase since 1999. Its survey found that the average consumer plans to spend $671.89 this holiday season, up from $648.85 last year. Deloitte Research is even more bullish. It expects non-auto retail spending to jump 6.5% to 7% over the holidays -- "one of the best holiday seasons of the past 10 years" and better than the average 5.2% annual gain for holiday spending in the past decade. Merrill Lynch says U.S. general merchandise sales should rise 8.7% in November and December. Economists agree that the consumer hasn't tired yet. "It's true that the impact of the tax cut has waned, but there is still a tailwind driven by improvement in the stock market, some signs of [improvement] in the job market, low interest rates, and a continued rise in home prices, as well as increases in wages," says Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of America Capital Management. She concedes that consumer spending has "moderated," but says she expects it to accelerate again toward year-end. Economists and industry types say inventories are very slim this year, so the atmosphere is likely to be "less promotional" -- meaning, fewer sales, bigger profits. "Retailers are likely to see improvement in profit margins as inventories are quite lean … they'll still be promotional but not quite as aggressive" as we've seen in the past four years," says Ms. Reaser. NRF agrees, saying the "golden rule for consumers this holiday is 'Buy it when you see it.' " Meanwhile, the shopping season -- or stretch of time between Thanksgiving and Christmas -- is a day longer this year than it was last year. ... online.wsj.com