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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (15000)	11/11/2003 11:23:11 PM
From: Doughboy	Respond to of 306849

Grown-Up Homebuilders Ready to Run, Analyst Says By Meredith Derby Staff Reporter 11/10/2003 03:39 PM EST Click here for more stories by Meredith Derby A wave of buying by large-cap investors looking for earnings growth is likely to lift shares in the homebuilding space, a Citigroup analyst said Monday in raising price targets on 11 stocks. Other factors in the homebuilders' favor, according to analyst Stephen Kim, include mostly positive 2004 earnings revisions, easier order comparisons going into the first quarter and the group's habit of rallying in the winter. Specifically, Kim believes the large-cap growth investor will be interested in the stocks now that several of the companies have market caps of $6 billion to $8 billion. Three years ago, he said, the largest homebuilder's market cap was about $1.2 billion. In addition to the target price increases, Kim raised estimates on Hovnanian (HOV:NYSE - commentary - research) to $7.94 a share from $7.75 a share for 2003 and to $8.95 a share from $8.75 a share in 2004. The stock target price was raised to $115 from $98. Shares of Hovnanian were recently down $2.73, or 3.3%, at $79.89. Earnings estimates on Toll Brothers (TOL:NYSE - commentary - research) were also upped to $3.46 a share from $3.43 a share in 2003, and to $4.10 a share from $3.90 a share in 2004. Kim's price target on Toll Brothers stock is now $50, up from $41. Still, shares of the company were recently down 64 cents, or 1.7%, at $37.02. Meanwhile, Kim lifted his Beazer Homes (BZH:NYSE - commentary - research) target price to $159 from $144; Centex (CTX:NYSE - commentary - research) to $149 from $121; D.R. Horton (DHI:NYSE - commentary - research) to $56, from $45; KB Home (KBH:NYSE - commentary - research) to $101 from $92; Lennar (LEN:NYSE - commentary - research) to $128 from $109; MDC Holdings (MDC:NYSE - commentary - research) to $90. from $78; Pulte (PHM:NYSE - commentary - research) to $133, up from $116; Ryland (RYL:NYSE - commentary - research) to $123 from $108; and Standard Pacific (SPF:NYSE - commentary - research) to $72, up from $65. "With fundamentals, technicals, valuation trends and sentiment all positively aligned heading into fiscal year 2004, we expect the homebuilding group to continue its unprecedented rally for a fifth consecutive year," Kim wrote in a research note.