Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carragher who wrote (15949)	11/12/2003 8:58:34 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793696

More on the recent Pew survey. _________________________________ THE POLLSTERS Dr. David Hill Challenging Gallup by going deeper ......Pew just released an extraordinary 150-page report, “Evenly Divided and Increasingly Polarized: 2004 Political Landscape” that not only examines two major Pew surveys taken earlier this year but also marshals longitudinal trend data from tens of thousands of interviews conducted since 1987 and detailed cross-sectional analysis of thousands of Pew surveys conducted in 2002 and 2003. The big-picture conclusions provide happy news for both parties, befitting Pew’s “independent” or nonpartisan role. The report concludes that Republican identification has surged since Sept. 11, putting the two parties at parity, but that Americans’ positions on many key issues are trending toward the Democratic perspective. However, it’s not the big-picture conclusions that make this report so fascinating. Instead, it’s the tidbits of crucial information that make this study worth reading. The greatest GOP gains have come among the most religious Americans. And it’s not only white evangelicals who are rallying to the Republican banner; it’s also white Roman Catholics. Not surprisingly, Southern states are judged the most religious and most socially conservative states, while New England and Massachusetts are the opposite on both counts. Nevertheless, it’s notable that two Midwestern states, Ohio and Indiana, also rank among the most traditional on Pew’s social-values index. Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi and West Virginia are singled out as the most “hawkish” states, while Washington and Oregon are most “dovish.” Arkansas, Iowa and Michigan are identified as the “swing” states with the biggest shift toward the GOP since the last election. Minnesota, Tennessee and Florida also have seen significant movement toward President Bush’s party. Washington state and California are Democratic or “blue” states where Pew finds a statistically significant shift toward Republican identification. Hispanic identification with the Democratic Party has declined by five percentage points to 36 points since the last election, while GOP identification has risen three points to 22 percent, a net decline of eight points for the Democrats. There’s some news here for poll junkies of every political stripe. Clearly, Gallup has a formidable new challenger. REST AT thehill.com

To: John Carragher who wrote (15949)	11/12/2003 9:02:46 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793696

THE POLLSTERS Mark Mellman Party on: Identification is key .......To focus respondents on the long-term aspect of party identification, pollsters usually ask a question such as “Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or something else?” Measured this way, ABC finds precise parity: 31 percent Democrat, 31 percent Republican, 31 percent independent and 6 percent other. Pew finds 33 percent identify as Republicans, 34 percent as Democrats and 13 percent as independents or other. Most pollsters go a step further and ask those who call themselves independents whether they lean Democratic or Republican. This approach reduces the number of independents to just 8 percent in ABC polling this year, while pegging Democratic identification at 46 percent and Republican at 43 percent. Because academic research demonstrates that these “independent leaners” exhibit voting behavior almost identical to partisans, it usually makes sense to count leaners as partisans, not as “true independents.” No matter how one looks at the data, however, the ABC study reveals two oft-repeated statements about partisanship to be myths. First, independents are not the largest “party.” At most, there are as many independents as Democrats and Republicans this year, for the first time, but not more. Second, despite the hype, political independence has not grown over the last quarter-century. ABC identified 9 percent of the electorate as independents in 1981 and 8 percent in 2003. Nonetheless, independents are politically potent. Returning to the partisans, though, there are more Republicans and fewer Democrats than there used to be. Only in 1986 and 2002 has the Democratic advantage been as low as it is today. But party identification is far from a perfect indicator of the vote. Look what happened when the Democratic advantage was as narrow as it is today. In 1986, when we also had just a three-point advantage in party identification, Democrats won eight Senate seats and five House seats. In 2002, Democrats lost two Senate seats and six in the House. While the narrowing of the partisan gap is not good news for Democrats, it is hardly dispositive. thehill.com