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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading with Jerry Olson(OJ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1258)	11/17/2003 7:49:03 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 1617

newsletter from 2 weeks ago...you should read the last 2<G> ============================================================ JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED NOV 2ND 2003 "KNOCK KNOCK KNOCKIN" Hello all my cyber trading buddies. Hey it's like spring here in the east this beautiful Sunday afternoon. We have an open house today it will be mobbed<g> Hope this letter finds you and your family in good health and spirits. The markets are actually setting up for a major breakout here despite the length of this rally. I can see it in all the charts of all the indexes. Unless we topple right away next week and sell off hard for a correction the street will run this up and over the top very fast. The first sign of weakness in the Bears, of not being able to slam this market down for a major correction, those brave souls of Wall Street will plunge investors money into the breach once more like a scared rabbit. No one on that street wants to miss this "possible" breakout. The reason is simple, low interest rates confirmed by Alan & Co. saying they'll keep rates low for a "considerable time", and the slow but potential recovery of the employment picture. Speaking of that we get the next look at this number this coming Friday. Then this Wednesday we have one of the biggest baddest big cap stocks reporting CSCO along with QCOM should make for an interesting week. CSCO "could" ignite this candle big time on a solid report with good forward guidance. We shall be here to see it first hand. We had some interesting economic reports that were "all" good last week. Chicago PMI, Michigan Sentiment etc the whole picture is beginning to look a lot better on down the road. The biggest shock to the street was that crazy GDP number at 7.2%, that was an eye opener. It portends a move up in Cap X spending soon, and more hiring over the next quarter. I think this last 2 months of the year will be the best for the consumer in years. They have held us up for a long time, but all along being cautious in their spending limits. I say they'll buy buy buy big time and really crank this economy up large. Retailers and Online sites will boom this year into Xmas. I ask you all this question, at this time of 2003 and looking beyond to 2004 are you in fact feeling a bit better overall? If the answer is yes then so it will be that way for most of America and around the globe as well. What goes around comes around after 3 1/2 years of disastrous selling and major pull backs in business spending the time has come for them to start to spend aknew. I say they will and do it soon. We had a big time boost last week on that TSM news of raising cap x spending, they had a great expansive quarter too, as well the Japan chips sector was up 28% too. This is only the tip of the iceberg as computers will need to be upgraded and updated, cell phones are everywhere in everyone's hands all over the place. Good gosh the kids are using them in droves all over the world. Just look at Nextel's stock price. it doubled from when we started trading it at 11-12 bucks some months ago. I still love QCOM right now folks their report on Weds will be an interesting report for the health and guidance of the whole industry. Ok so what to do? If I am right and after some minor selling early this week ahead of CSCO, if they come out good I would get long heavily as we may breakout later in the week. Remember this, the Funds have sold their dogs with fleas, and should start buying for the NEW YEAR. Then traditionally the NOV thru April time frame is the best to be long. Now if we get our wish and we correct a bit first and then can find a nice bottom during this month, i'll position us in long side swing trades that we'll baby sit all the way up thru next spring. If we're going to make big money we can do both, swing trade and day trade for a days pay as per usual using a portion of our total capital along the way. We have had those Tests of Tops on almost all indexes last week and so far have failed to breakout. So if they cannot break them out they'll take them down. The question is how far and how fast. From the Sept lows we have made higher lows all the way up here to Nov. I'm thinking we make another higher low to BUY. I'll talk about it below. As of this date both the NYSE & OTC Bullish Percents are still in X's and in no danger of reversing back down yet. The 2 Hi Lo Indexes are still very high and very bullish so far. I will not short swing this market till they both reverse down. I will continue to dip buy all pullbacks till I'm wrong. In fact every single stock with the exception of 2 that I sold for a loss has come back higher then where I entered it over time. That means to me buyers are out there in force. So i'll be patient and see what transpires this week. You do the same. ================================================================================================ OK LET'S DO ALL THE INDEXES AS THEY ARE RIGHT AT OR NEAR 52 WEEK TESTS OF HIGHS HERE. DJIA---KNOCKING ON A B/O AT 9900 THATS THE 61.8% PROJECTION SEPT LOW OCT HIGH TO THE OCT LOWS TWO FRIDAYS AGO. THIS FRIDAYS STICK WAS A NRB(NARROW RANGE BAR) SMALL AND INDECISIVE SO FAR, WE USUALLY FALL BELOW THAT BAR THE VERY NEXT TRADING DAY WE'LL SEE WHAT MONDAY LOOKS LIKE. THE 20 EMA(EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE) IS AT 9685 ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC), WITH THE 38.2% RETRENCHMENT FROM THE AUGUST LOWS TO THE OCT HIGHS AT 9525. WE ALREADY GOT THAT ON THE 3 BOX REVERSAL ON P&F 2 WEEKS AGO. NOW IF YOU TAKE THE SEPT LOWS TO THE OCT HIGHS THE 38.2% IS AT 9600 AND THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN IS AT 9650 IT'S ALL BUNCHED UP SO FAR. I CAN SAY THAT SELLERS APPEARED AT THE TEST OF TOP "SO FAR". COMPX---SAME EXACT STORY, WE HAD THAT TEST OF TOP AT 1950 LAST WEEK. THERE WAS DARK CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER NRB ON FRIDAY. THE 20 EMA ON THE DCC IS AT 1907.00 38.2% RETRENCHMENT IS AT 1893.70 SEPT LOW OCT HIGHS. NOW THE 61.8% PROJECTION HERE IS AT 1963.00 WITH 100% AT 2036.00 WE WILL HAVE TO SURGE OVER THE OCT HIGHS TO GET IT ROLLING UPWARD HARD AGAIN. 1970-75 IS A BIG TIME BREAKOUT THERE. 1920 IS THE NORMAL 3 BOX DOWN 1870 THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND AROUND THE 50 DAY. SOX---WE BROKE OUT LARGE LAST WEEK AS THE SEMIS WERE LEADING US UP BIG. THEY DID A SPREAD TRIPLE TOP B/O AT 495 AND TOUCHED 505 WHAT A MOVE OFF THE RECENT LOWS. 450 IS THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK HERE BUT THE 20 EMA IS AT 471.00 THATS ABOUT A 3-4 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN. THE BULLISH PERCENT(BP) SEMIS IS AT 79.69 AND STILL 1.30% AWAY FROM REVERSING BACK UP..IF THIS DOES HAPPEN WE WILL BE HEAVILY LONG THE SMH FOR A SWING TRADE INTO NEXT SPRING USING TRAILING STOPS. HOWEVER LET'S NOT GET AHEAD OF OURSELVES AS THE SOX DOJI'D ON THURS AND HAD THAT NRB FRIDAY SO STAY COOL HERE AND LET'S WATCH IT TOGETHER. NDX---SELLERS APPEARED AT THE TEST OF TOP WITH A BIG RED BAR ON THURS AT 1430. NOW A MOVE BACK OVER 1440 IS A MAJOR B/O FOR THIS INDEX. THE 20 EMA DCC CHART IS AT 1396.00 WITH THE 38.2% RETRACE AT 1386. 1370 IS THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK AS WELL. WHAT'S AMAZING TO ME IS THAT THESE PROJECTIONS AND RETRENCHMENTS HAVE BE UNCANNY HERE. WE TOUCHED THE 61.8% PROJECTION RIGHT ON THE MONEY LAST WEEK. THE BP NDX IS AT 77% DOWN 1% LAST WEEK BUT STILL IN X'S HERE. BKX---AT THE TEST OF TOP AT 940...945 IS THE B/O BUY SIGNAL THERE. 925 THE 3 BOX REV DOWN. 915 THE DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) SELL SIGNAL. THE 61.8% PROJECTED TARGET IS AT 965.00 IF WE PULLBACK HERE THIS WEEK THE 20 EMA IS AT 917.00 THE CHART IS VERY POWERFUL TO ME THO. I SAY IT BREAKS OUT. BTK---STILL WEAKISH TO ME FOLKS. THERE'S A LARGE TRIANGLE ON THE PF CHART HERE..IT COULD GO EITHER WAY. 455 THE 3 BOX DOWN 440 THE DB SELL SIGNAL. 475 IS THE BUY SIGNAL. THE BP BIOM IS MOVING LOWER HERE TOO IT'S AT 58.67 IF IT BREAKS 54% IS DONE LIKE DOA. SPX---ONE VERY NICE LOOKING CHART PATTERN HERE EVERYONE. 3 CONSECUTIVE HIGHER LOWS, THREE CONSECUTIVE HIGHER HIGHS WITH BUY SIGNALS EACH AND EVERY TIME. WE DOUBLE TOPPED AT 1050 LAST WEEK KNOCKING ON THE DOOR TO A MAJOR BREAKOUT HERE, AT 1060. WHAT'S INTERESTING TO ME IS THE 61.8% FIBO PROJECTION IS EXACTLY 1060.00. THE 100% IS AT 1085 IT WOULD GET THERE IN A HEART BEAT. THIS PROJECTION IS BASED ON THE SEPT LOW, THE OCT HIGHS AND THE OCT LOWS. 1030 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN, 1010 A DB BREAK NOT GOOD THERE AND THE 1ST SIGN OF REAL TROUBLE. WE NOW HAVE A RISING BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL) AT 970. THE SPX BP IS AT 80% HOLDING WELL... OEX---JUST REVERSED DOWN 3 BOXES LAST WEEK TO 510.00. REMEMBER IT BROKE OUT AT 525. SO NOW 530 IS THE NEW IMPROVED B/O BUY SIGNAL. WE CAN POSITION OURSELVES IN A LONG CALL POSITION BEFORE THAT B/O IF WE CAN CATCH IT EARLY. THERE IS SUPER DUPER SUPPORT AT 485 A DOUBLE BOTTOM AND THE RISING BSL LINE. SPZ3--E-MINI FUTURES---ALMOST BROKE OUT LAST WEEK AT 1056, WE HIT 1054. NO CEEGAR THERE YET. THE QUESTION IS THIS FOR ALL THESE INDEXS "IS THIS A FAILED TEST OF TOP?" I THINK WE'LL KNOW THIS WEEK. THE 3 BOX REV DOWN IS AT 1040 THE 20 EMA AT 1037.00. MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK IS AT 1024.00. NOW THE 61.8% PROJECTION IS AT 1057.25 WITH 100% AT 1083.00 NQZ3--NAZ E MINI'S---A PREFECT TEST OF TOP LAST WEEK ON THURS AT 1440ISH. 1450 THE BIG BREAKOUT BUY SIGNAL THERE'S WAS HOWEVER A MAJOR DOJI ON THURS ON THAT TEST AS SELLERS APPEARED HARD AND HEAVY. THE 20 EMA IS AT 1397 BUT 1410 IS THE 3 BOX DOWN WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK AT 1370, SO SOME TARGETS FOR US TO SET ALERTS ON. ALL IN ALL THIS WEEK WILL TELL THE TALE. IF THE MARKETS PULLBACK TO THE RISING 20 EMA PRIOR TO WEDS CSCO REPORT IT MAY BE A SET UP AFTER HOURS THAT WE GO LONG ON A GOOD REPORT. LET'S WATCH THE ACTION AS THE MARKET WILL DICTATE WHICH WAY IT WANTS TO GO RIGHT NOW! ================================================================================================ OK WELL THIS WILL BE THE WEEK THAT WAS..CSCO ON THE 5TH ALONG WITH QCOM...THEN NEXT WEEK AMAT THEN THE 17TH OUR MASCOT DA "KLICSTER"<VBG>... QCOM---EPS AH ON WEDS STRONG P&F CHART. HIT THE 61.8% PROJECTION TARGET. I AM LONG AND WILL HOLD HERE. 48.15 THE BTL---46.90 THE SST... CSCO---HAS EPS WEDS AH COULD BE GOOD FOR THE POP WE NEED OVER THE TOP. I EXPECT A SOLID REPORT. 21.35 THE BTL---20.55 THE BTL--- YHOO---VERY STRONG STOCK IN A STRONG SECTOR...I SAID LAST WEEK I LOVE IT AND MADE NICE MONEY ON IT TOO. 44.20 THE BTL---43.20 THE SST... CYMI---IN A TIGHT TRIANGLE ON P&F. HAS EXCELLENT NEWS FOR THE LAST WEEK. 46.10 THE BTL---45.00 THE SST. SINA---VOLATILE AS IT GETS BUT WHAT A TRADER NOT FOR THE FEINT OF HEART. SEEMS TO BE AT A GOOD BUYING AREA. 39.20 THE BTL---38.10 THE SST---GOOD LUCK I MAY PLAY IT FOR A BOUNCE..42 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP. QLGC---UH OH I AM LONG AND UNDERWATER..THAT WAS SOME BAD LOOKING STICK ON THURSDAY FOLKS. LOOKS LOWER TO ME I MAY HAVE TO DUMP EARLY MONDAY..56.50 THE BTL---55.50 THE SST. NVLS---NOW THIS IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. I LOVE THIS CHART AND THIS STOCK I AM LONG AND HOLDING FOR NOW. I'M DOWN 10 CENTS<GULP>...GREAT STICK FRIDAY 41.80 THE BTL---40.65 THE SST--- WATCH THIS ONE EBAY---2 BIG RED STICKS THURS AND FRIDAY PULLING BACK OFF THAT PERFECT 61.8% TOUCH LAST WEEK. AND NOW? IT BETTER POP FOR ME. 56.45 THE BTL---55.35 THE SST--- BRCM---FAILED TEST OF TOP LAST WEEK AND IT'S STARTING TO PULLBACK A BIT..I LIKE THIS CHART A LOT. MAYBE A PB TO THE 20 EMA AT 30.75. 32.50 THE BTL---31.40 THE SST. NSM---ONE FANTASTIC CHART FOLKS...CONTINUES HIGHER NO MATTER WHAT, THIS THING COULD BE A ZILLION NEXT YEAR. 41.15 THE BTL---40.05 THE SST. 39 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN... PCLN---EPS AH NOV 4TH THIS ONE SURPRISED LAST QUARTER..THEY HAVE PULLED IT BACK A LOT PRE EARNINGS.. IT MUST HOLD HERE, MAYBE WE GET A POP IF THE MARKETS MOVING UP. ON A BACK SIDE BOUNCE LAST WEEK SELLERS SHOWED UP AT THE 20 EMA. 28.60 THE BTL---27.70 THE SST. TXN---THE "NEW" BIG DADDY SEMI ON THE BLOCK..POWERFUL CHART WITH NO SELLERS HERE SO FAR..IF THEY TAKE IT DOWN 3 BOXES I'LL BE LONG RIGHT THERE. THATS AT 27.00...ON THURS A MAJOR DOJI WAS THERE. SO LET'S GET THAT PULLBACK...29.40 THE BTL---28.45 THE SST KLIC---I WOULD DEARLY LOVE TO SEE A PRINT OF 14 THIS WEEK FOR THAT 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN AHEAD OF EARNINGS ON THE 17TH...IT WOULD SET THIS STOCK UP BEAUTIFULLY..IF WE GET THAT AND A BIT LOWER BUY IT AND HOLD IT ALL THE WAY. 15.05 THE BTL---14.30 THE SST. SLAB---WHAT A GREAT TRADER FOLKS HUH? IT HAS GREAT RS(RELATIVE STRENGTH) RIGHT NOW. IT'S PULLING BACK TOWARD THE RISING 20 EMA AT 52.50 WE'LL BUY IT THERE. 54.55 THE BTL---53.45 THE SST. AMZN---MADE A LOWER HIGH AT 57 ROLLED OVER AND IT'S MOVING DOWN..CORRECTING I WOULD SAY AFTER LOWERING GUIDANCE. 55.00 THE BTL---53.90 THE SST...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHORT HERE. KLAC---HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN LIKE A YO YO..THE STREET IS NOT SURE ABOUT WHERE IT'S GOING. FILLED THE BIG GAP DOWN LAST WEEK SO LET'S SEE WHERE IT WANTS TO GO. 57.85 THE BTL---56.70 THE SST MO---A SAFE HAVEN STOCK THATS GETTING STRONGER BY THE DAY...48 IS THE DT BUY SIGNAL...47.05 THE BTL---46.00 THE SST... AMAT---EPS ON THE 11TH BROKE A 52 WEEK HIGH LAST WEEK AT 23..THE STREET ALL OF A SUDDEN LOVES THIS STOCK. IT'S BECAUSE OF THAT TSM NEWS. 23.65 THE BTL---22.95 THE SST. I LIKE IT LONG AS A HOLD SWING TRADE. LET'S WAIT AND SEE WHAT MONDAY TUES BRINGS US INTO CSCO... NVEC---NOT FOR THE FEINT OF HEART FOLKS BUT TRADING WELL...ACTUALLY HAD GOOD EARNINGS...BROKE A SPREAD TRIPLE TOP AT 39 AND IS NOW BACK DOWN TO RIGHT THERE...39.00 THE BTL---38.05 THE SST...COULD POP HERE. NXTL---SENSATIONAL MOVER HERE SLOW BUT STEADY FROM THE LOW TEENS WHEN WE PLAYED IT. NOT A SNDK BUT A FABULOUS CHART...24.40 THE BTL---23.75 THE SST...PRETTY AS A PICTURE. =============================================================================================== OK THATS IT FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE IMPORTANCE OF A SHALLOW PB THEN CSCO EARNINGS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A MAJOR RALLY HERE.. ALMOST ALL INDEXES ARE NEAR 52 WEEK HIGHS AND WE ARE LATE IN THE GAME...BUT MAYBE NOT HUH?<VBG> LET'S JUST TRADE THE CHARTS AND WHAT'S IN FRONT OF OUR FACES PERIOD!!! LIKE I SAY:----WHAT IS..............IS. CLASS MEMBERS WE'LL DO OUR 3RD CLASS MON AT 4.PM EST. SAME NAME AND PASSWORD.. AS FOR THE REAL TIME ROOM..THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IS. .................................majormove LATER ALL JER jerry olson www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com jerry.olson@verizon.net