To: TobagoJack who wrote (41367 ) 11/14/2003 2:27:38 AM From: EL KABONG!!! Respond to of 74559 online.wsj.com U.S. Crop Prices Soar As China Fuels Demand Population Growth, Floods Have Reduced Reserves; Binge Buying of Soybeans By SCOTT KILMAN Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL China's soaring demand for U.S. crops is fueling a big price rally that is sending a jolt through the American farm economy. The size of China's appetite is far from clear, in part because Beijing makes it hard for outsiders to accurately gauge its grain supplies. But the U.S. Agriculture Department sharpened the picture somewhat Wednesday by significantly increasing its one-month-old forecasts of the amounts of soybeans and cotton China will import over the next year from the U.S. and other countries. Likewise, the USDA said a smaller corn harvest in China this year is expected to cut its exports by 44% next year, perhaps creating opportunities for U.S. corn exporters to do business in Asian markets dominated by China in recent years, such as South Korea. Heavy rains and flooding across China's northern plains in recent months caused extensive damage to farm fields. Some provinces might have lost close to half of their cotton, for example. The calamity follows several years of stagnant yields. The combination of production problems and China's rising population has significantly reduced the size of crop reserves maintained by the Chinese government. While the reserves are widely believed to be adequate by the standards of most developed countries, grain prices inside China have climbed so sharply in recent weeks that officials there are warning the public against panicking. The USDA expects China to import a record 808 million bushels of soybeans over the next year, up 55 million bushels from its October estimate and more than double the amount China imported from all sources during the 2002 marketing year. If the forecast is accurate, China will import more than half of the soybeans it uses for such things as feeding livestock and making cooking oil. U.S. soybean prices have jumped in recent months in part due to a buying binge by China, which has purchased at least 219 million bushels of U.S. soybeans since Sept. 1, a record pace for China for this time of the year and far more than traders had expected. The price farmers in central Illinois are paid for their soybeans has jumped 28% since Sept. 1, adding to their incomes. China is devouring U.S. soybeans at a time when U.S. farmers are harvesting their smallest crop in eight years: 2.45 billion bushels, which is 11% less than last year. Dry weather across the Midwest late in the summer dented yields. The U.S. production decline, plus increased exports to China, could draw down U.S. soybean supplies by the time of next year's harvest to 125 million bushels: the lowest level since the mid-1970s. The tight supplies are good news for soybean growers, which should reap their highest prices in seven years, accelerating the Farm Belt's recovery from a long recession. The USDA Wednesday raised its estimate of the average soybean price next year to $7.10 a bushel, give or take 45 cents, up 28% from this year's average price. "It's been quite awhile since we've had this much excitement in the markets," said Robert Wisner, an Iowa State University economist. Higher prices, however, could sting poultry processors such as Tyson Foods Inc., which feed large amounts of soybeans to chickens. Likewise, grain processors such as Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and Bunge Ltd. might have a hard time keeping their U.S. facilities operating at a high level of capacity. The rise in the price of soybeans, which is a ubiquitous food ingredient, will likely increase upward pressure on U.S. grocery prices, which are being dragged higher by soaring retail beef prices. Michael Swanson, an agricultural economist at banking company Wells Fargo & Co., said he expects retail food prices to climb between 3.5% and 4% in 2004, compared with the 2.5%-to-3.5% rise he expects this year. He sees retail beef prices jumping 20% next year as the meat industry struggles with a shortage caused in part by the closure of the U.S. border to Canadian cattle imports in May. The Bush administration closed the border after a single case of mad-cow disease was identified in Alberta. In a lift for the U.S. cotton industry, which depends heavily on export sales, the USDA cut its one-month-old estimate of China's 2003 cotton crop by 14%, or 3.5 million bales, and raised its forecast of Chinese cotton imports in 2004 to seven million bales, which is more than double last year's figure. Largely as a result, the USDA expects U.S. cotton exports to climb 11% next year. A bale weighs 480 pounds.Write to Scott Kilman at scott.kilman@wsj.com Updated November 13, 2003 KJC