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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jrhana who wrote (33591)	11/13/2003 10:10:41 PM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Russell today: <If I had to offer one comment about the stock market at this time, my comment would be that so far there's very little urge to sell. A market can back off as buyers halt their buying, but for a real trip south there must be rising selling pressure -- investors must want to exit. So far, the urge to sell has been absent. As for gold, it's obvious that a large contingent of gold bears and shorts were disappointed when gold closed above 390 yesterday This same contingent is now fearful of an even more important gold close above 400. Thus, we could see a battle here on a daily basis, day after day, as the gold bulls try to break gold out above 400 -- the gold bulls are pitted against the Commercials, the gold shorts, the government and the central banks -- all of whom do not want to see higher gold. A year from now my guess will be that we'll look back at the "battle of 400" and wonder what we were even thinking about. But the early phase of a primary bull market is always a battle and usually a tough one. I remember back in the '40s and early '50s when just a few of us believed we were actually in a bull market. At that time the idea of the Dow ever closing above the September, 1929 high of 381 seemed impossible.The 1932 to 1937 bull market has been a beauty, percentagewise, but that bull market topped out with the Dow at 194. And here we were looking at that impossible high" of Dow 381. Many investors were of the opinion that Dow 381 would not be bettered in our lifetime. But a primary bull market was in force, and on November 22, 1954, the great "miracle" occurred. On that day the Dow closed at 382.74. The impossible 1929 high of 381.17 had finally been bettered. By 1956 were looking at the Dow in the 520's. For new subscribers I want to go over the thesis of the primary trend again. This is the great force comparable to the tide of the ocean. If you're on the beach, you can build a sand wall against the tide, but before the day is over the incoming tide will wash your sand wall away. Well, wait, it may take two days or even three before your wall is destroyed, but make no mistake about it -- the irresistible tide will wash your sand wall away. The same is true of the primary trend or tide in the market. Once the primary trend turns up, it will continue up until the best that can be seen ahead is fully discounted in the price action. The more walls are built up against the primary trend, the fiercer the ultimate bullish expression. I liken it to a spring that is compressed further and further. When the spring is finally released, all that pent up energy surges and you have an explosive final phase. All bull and bear markets end in the same way -- in exhaustion. The thesis of the primary trend is not something you can see -- it requires an intellectual understanding of how it works. This is why it's so difficult to get the primary trend thesis across to the great majority of investors. The primary trend of gold turned bullish in 1999. The primary trend of gold will remain bullish until such time as gold fully expresses itself on the upside. I don't know whether that full expression, the rise to exhaustion, will take gold to 550 to 1000 or 3000 or 5000. I have no way of knowing. But I can tell you one thing now. The gold bull market is in its first or accumulation phase. The public is not in gold, the funds are not in gold, the great majority of investors are not in gold, in fact these people are not even thinking in terms of gold. In the S&P 500 there's only one gold mining stock. When brokerage houses put out their "recommended list," they don't mention gold. Thus, the primary trend of gold, although very much alive and in action, "feels invisible." This is as it should be in the first phase of any bull market. This brand of sentiment will not last. But the timing of the gold bull market, like the timing in all bull markets, remains a mystery. I will say this, and I've said it before -- in my experience the primary trend (both bull and bear) takes LONGER than anyone thinks possible to complete -- and the primary trend takes the item further (both up or down) than anyone thinks possible.> Somthing from all you short sellers to chew on: From 1932 to 1937 there was a cyclical bull that lasted FIVE years and all contained within one hell of a secular bear. I don't know much but I know better than to short a rising market. JMHO