Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (2082)	11/13/2003 10:03:02 AM
From: re3	Respond to of 110194

i spoke to someone who works in "credit" here...sounds like a very stable job, trying to work out payments from people who have mega sized cell phone bills...i got the feeling a wink a smile and a signature gets someone a cell phone account open these days...needless to say, the individual is VERY BUSY at work... (in other words, air time on margin ? -ng-)

To: russwinter who wrote (2082)	11/13/2003 10:56:16 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The Fed seems determined to keep rates artificially low as long as possible. By that I mean until the dollar bear threatens to turn into an all out dollar route. I suspect we are nearing such an infection point for the buck. But the exact timing is impossible to predict.

To: russwinter who wrote (2082)	11/13/2003 11:40:44 AM
From: Silver Super Bull	Respond to of 110194

Russ, From your post yesterday Message 19491702 I found this line to be especially interesting: "Talbott contends that the relationship between rates and home prices is almost linear. In other words, a 30 percent increase in mortgage rates (from, say, 5.5 percent on a 30-year mortgage to around 7 percent) could mean as much as a 30 percent decrease in home prices." money.cnn.com If Talbott is correct on the level of leverage inherent in this relationship between mortgage rates and home values, it could be a really frightful ride. 7% mortgage rates aren't too far away, and I suspect (I am very bearish on bonds) that interest rates will go far higher than that in the not too distant future. One of the real killers will be the ARMs, IMHO. They look awfully seductive when rates are low, but unexpected interest rate increases are a real ass-kicker. DB