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Politics : WHO IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN 2004 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (6461)	11/13/2003 7:30:50 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 10965

MORE: Dean is angry and, unlike the other Democratic candidates, the anger is authentic. Indeed, it's almost raw. Democrats deserve a presidential candidate who represents, as Dean says, "the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party." Small wonder he has shot to the front of the Democratic pack, and managed to stay there. I also think he would be a tough foe for Bush next fall. It's going to be a close race, and having a fired-up up base can only help Democrats. I wonder how Dean's anger will play over a long race and among non-Democrats, but authentic is good in presidential candidates. Bill Clinton was gifted enough to fake it twice, while Al Gore lost running on inauthentic. "The potential for the economy to remain sluggish . . . and conditions in the Middle East are impossible to predict," Moore and Kaiser wrote. "Should these situations remain status quo or worsen, America will be looking for someone new . . . who can shake America out of the doldrums and reinvigorate the body politic. Dean would provide solutions and excitement where the other Democrats . . . are not as convincing because they don't have the perceived conviction of a Howard Dean." The two pollsters do some Electoral College math and conclude "a Dean candidacy is a lot more realistic than people think." They figure he could claim enough electoral votes to win the White House without Florida. But won't Republicans paint him as a hopeless "left-winger"? The prospect makes many Republicans giddy and Democrats who fret about Dean's electability jittery. Moore and Kaiser counter with a parallel that will likely fluster Republicans and Democrats: "Dean's appeal is closer to Ronald Reagan's than any other Democrat running today. . . . The Democratic party used to chuckle about Reagan and his gaffes, which they believed would marginalize him to the far-right dustbin of history. But when his opponents tried to attack him for some of his more outlandish statements, the folks in the middle simply ignored them. Voters . . . looked to the bigger picture, where they saw a man of conviction who cared about them and had solutions for their problems." Moore says he's never had more reaction to a memo. Tellingly, almost all Republicans -- fellow pollsters and clients -- thought the memo was dead-on. And they were dead serious. Howard Dean as Ronald Reagan? Republicans who think Howard Dean can win the White House? It all might drive Democrats to distraction.