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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (2120)	11/14/2003 12:33:35 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

t2 what you are missing is 1) the % of bonds and treasuries owned by foreigners 2) interest rates 3) credit risk Interest rates are way lower and credit risk is thru the roof (junk bonds have had the biggest rally ever perhaps) Credit spreads widening would be very very bad for companies with lots of debt and there are tons of them Bond markets are priced for perfection and no credit risks to boot. Foreigners just might get tired of US assets and losing $ on them as well as losing in currency exchanges. we had 13 rate CUTS supporting the bond market since 2000. Are we going to have 13 more? These are all HUGE differences between now and 2000. So vastly different that I can not possibly see how you can say if it was going to happen it would have happened in 2000. Quite simply we were not in a bond bubble then. Well we are now and a HUGE one, not reflecting credit risk or risk of deafulat or risk of rising rates or risk of ANYTHING for that matter. Put me in the group that says widening credit spreads and falling bonds are going to signal the death of the markets and it will be brutal cause in the binary world of these idiots you either own stocks or bonds and both are going to get crucified IMO on the next trip down. M