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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jimsioi who wrote (3409)	11/15/2003 11:23:59 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 108697

the rude awakening has begun this autumn event #1: JYen broke out, signaling start of Asian imported price inflation event #2: CRB breakout underway, signaling start of rising production costs event #3: upcoming... arrival of price inflation, even in the suppressed CPI finally, which hits the Trez Bond market and Agency Mortgage market like sixteen tons of bricks these events have everything to do with preventing US return to domination in capitalism and free enterprise the constant is China and Pacific Tigers, who will not relent in their pricing pressures the end result is shrinking US corporate profit margins, and hindered US household budgets NOT REFLATION WHICH IS ATTEMPTING TO RESTORE PRICING we have now the advent of rising production costs with no revival of pricing power whatsoever US ECONOMISTS (POLITICAL APOLOGISTS ON THE ECONOMY) WILL BE THOROUGHLY DISCREDITED IN THIS NEXT DANGEROUS PHASE #2 UNDERWAY, WHICH FEW SEEM CAPABLE OF REALIZING PHASE #2 IS ONE MONTH OLD, ITS BIRTH WAS OCT 1ST WITH THE JYEN BREAKOUT FOLLOWING THE DUBAI G7 MEETING / jim

To: jimsioi who wrote (3409)	11/17/2003 12:04:45 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 108697

Huffing and Puffing For New Highs, by Mark M. Rostenko of Sovereign Strategist [ME: this guy is brilliant consistently] gold-eagle.com waning upside momentum is flashing a danger signal and last week's mediocre performance did nothing to quell that stance If happy days are truly here again, why must the market struggle with every new high? But What About That Wild Nasdaq?! This "hotbed of speculative activity" is enjoying stellar relative strength primarily due to the increased activity of gamblers hoping that the "glory days" of yesterday's bull market are back. Newsflash: yesterday's leaders never lead the next bull market. Thomson Financial reports that last month's ratio of insider sales to buys hit a record 59 to 1. That's 59 shares sold for every one purchased! And it surpasses the previous record of 41 to 1, set in May 2001, by a mile. A recent Barron's survey demonstrates that in professional money managers, bulls outnumber bears by 5 to 1. GDP growth at a 19-year record! Unemployment figures improving for the third consecutive month! Widely-followed tech-darling Cisco posting mighty impressive results! If great news isn't going to rally this market further, WHAT WILL? Sure, we got a decent rally. We saw some decent growth in the third quarter. But what did it take to create that? Massive fiscal stimulus. The kind of stuff that CANNOT be sustained. The only hope is that all this stimulus will push the economy over the edge and ignite a self-sustaining recovery. Will that happen? We shall see. But I'm not betting on it. Why not? Same story I've been telling for a while: the latest economic slowdown has NOT done the work of generating a foundation for sustained recovery. Consumers are MORE in debt than ever. Corporate profits have been boosted by cutting costs and laying off workers. In John Challenger's words, "We put so much stimulus into the economy in the third quarter that the economy grew at its fastest pace since 1984. And yet there was a net job loss of 50,000 jobs in the third quarter." If this is a genuine recovery it should be generating hundreds of thousands of new jobs monthly. It's not. So we're left with a bunch of mega-indebted consumers who still aren't finding jobs. This is to be the fertile ground from which the seeds of sustained economic growth are to spring forth? Good luck! Seriously folks, with all these contrary indications flashing big, bold, brilliant warning signs, where is the risk in this stock market? In missing out on huge upside gains? Or getting caught buying inches away from the ultimate top? You do the math... / jim